Dongara-Irwin Racing Analysis – 04/04/2026

🏟️ TRACK BIAS & CONDITIONS REPORT

Track Surface: Turf / Dirt Hybrid.

Historical Context: Dongara is a tight, circular track with a relatively short straight. Historically, the “rail is king” here. In sprint races (1100m-1200m), horses that can lead or sit in the “one-out, one-back” position are statistically advantaged.

Expected Bias: Given the current forecast and historical data, expect a strong advantage for inside barriers and front-runners. Horses forced to travel wide will struggle to make up ground on the tight turns.

Suited Runners: Sassyassa (R1), Battle On Battler (R2), Prince Ragnar (R4), and Argyle Star (R5).

RACE 1: THIRTY EVENTS MAIDEN (1200m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average to Fast.

The Map:

  • Leaders: Sassyassa (1), Loona Dawn (4)
  • On Pace: Magnificent Mia (8), Fighting Thunder (3)
  • Midfield: Sneaky Session (5), Third De Grece (2)
  • Backmarkers: Prized Benefit (7), Coupe Deburj (9)
    Bias Analysis: Sassyassa has the ultimate map advantage from Barrier 1. Loona Dawn is versatile but will look to stalk the speed.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

SASSYASSA (1)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Cathy Godden — Average | Jockey: Elisha Whittington — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 24 | Time Rating: 55 | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Top Race Rating (100). Drawn Barrier 1 on a leader-biased track. Significant class drop.
    • ❌ Cons: Jockey form is a major concern. Extremely poor time rating (55).
    • Verdict: If she holds the rail and leads, she will be very difficult to pass.

PRIZED BENEFIT (7)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Jackie Scott — Shit House | Jockey: Joseph See — Poor
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 94 | Current Rating: 28 | Time Rating: 83 | 10-Factor Score: 6/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Solid Race Rating. Competitive Time Rating (83).
    • ❌ Cons: 0 wins from 26 starts (Perennial non-winner). Poor trainer/jockey combo.
    • Verdict: Always a chance in this grade but find it hard to see her actually winning.

MAGNIFICENT MIA (8)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: George Murray — Shit House | Jockey: Tiana Murray — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 93 | Current Rating: 30 | Time Rating: 84 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Coming off a good 3rd at Geraldton. Decent time figure.
    • ❌ Cons: Wide gate (8). Family trainer/jockey combo stats are very low.
    • Verdict: Recent form is better than most here; just needs luck from the gate.

LOONA DAWN (4)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Julia Martin — Shit House | Jockey: Kristy Bennett — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 92 | Current Rating: 29 | Time Rating: 84 | 10-Factor Score: 8/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Excellent 2nd last start. Very consistent in this grade.
    • ❌ Cons: 0 wins from 16 starts. Blinkers come off today.
    • Verdict: The most reliable runner in the race. Hard to see her missing the placings.

SNEAKY SESSION (5)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Kym Tilka — Shit House | Jockey: Jefferson Tsang — Poor
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 82 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: Data Not Found | 10-Factor Score: 5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Highest Current Rating in the field. Jefferson Tsang is a slight jockey upgrade for this circuit.
    • ❌ Cons: Inconsistent form. Low Race Rating.
    • Verdict: A “watch the market” horse; has back-class if right.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

  • 🏆 BEST BET: LOONA DAWN
  • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: SASSYASSA
  • 💰 ROUGHIE: COUPE DEBURJ (Over $10)
  • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: ANOTHER CHANT (Under $10)
  • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Sassyassa, Loona Dawn, Magnificent Mia, Prized Benefit

RACE 2: PINK MOON HANDICAP (1100m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Fast.

The Map:

  • Leaders: Twelveunder (3), Scenic Boom (4)
  • On Pace: Battle On Battler (1), Mrs Kangaroo (5)
  • Midfield: Addictive Dream (7)
  • Backmarkers: Hot Puddin (6), Lady Tornado (2)
    Bias Analysis: The speed is drawn middle-to-inside. Battle On Battler should get a perfect “gun run” behind the leaders.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

BATTLE ON BATTLER (1)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Sean Rains — Shit House | Jockey: Kristy Bennett — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 38 | Time Rating: 90 | 10-Factor Score: 9/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Top Race Rating. Drawn the paint. Handles 1400m so will be powerful late.
    • ❌ Cons: Human ratings are at the bottom. Coming off a poor run at Geraldton.
    • Verdict: Clearly the horse to beat if he stays within striking distance early.

MRS KANGAROO (2)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Leigh Murray — Not Rated | Jockey: Bailey Webster — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 90 | Current Rating: 46 | Time Rating: 93 | 10-Factor Score: 8/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Highest Time Rating (93). Last start winner (Junction).
    • ❌ Cons: First-up after 7 months.
    • Verdict: The main danger. Her best is very fast for this grade.

HOT PUDDIN (4)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Malcolm Mackenzie — Shit House | Jockey: Elisha Whittington — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 85 | Current Rating: 47 | Time Rating: 92 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: High Current Rating. Strong Time Rating.
    • ❌ Cons: 8 months between runs. Usually gets back in the field.
    • Verdict: Place heavy runner who will be running on late.

LADY TORNADO (5)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Gordon Keay — Not Rated | Jockey: Ava Catarino — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 80 | Current Rating: 46 | Time Rating: 74 | 10-Factor Score: 4/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Proven at distance.
    • ❌ Cons: Hasn’t won for 3 years. Low time ratings.
    • Verdict: Hard to have on current metrics.

SCENIC BOOM (6)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Tony Clancy — Shit House | Jockey: Tiana Murray — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 78 | Current Rating: 40 | Time Rating: 90 | 10-Factor Score: 5.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Fit and racing. Will be prominent early.
    • ❌ Cons: Low winning strike rate.
    • Verdict: Likely to struggle late under the pressure.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

  • 🏆 BEST BET: BATTLE ON BATTLER
  • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: MRS KANGAROO
  • 💰 ROUGHIE: ADDICTIVE DREAM (Over $10)
  • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: LADY TORNADO (Under $10)
  • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Battle On Battler, Mrs Kangaroo, Hot Puddin, Scenic Boom

RACE 3: LAMBRON CONTRACTING HANDICAP (1100m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average.

The Map:

  • Leaders: Quick As Silver (3), Satin Bow (4)
  • On Pace: Gigi Gogo (2), Cozzies Choice (8)
  • Midfield: Truly Supreme (7), Golden Opera (5)
  • Backmarkers: I’m That Girl (1), Matsoka (6)
    Bias Analysis: Quick As Silver is drawn to lead but Satin Bow has superior numbers and should sit just off.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

QUICK AS SILVER (2)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Fenella Martin — Average | Jockey: Ava Catarino — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 39 | Time Rating: 82 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Top Race Rating. Loves the 1100m.
    • ❌ Cons: Jockey form. Low time rating compared to the class of field.
    • Verdict: Top rated but faces a stiff challenge from the “maiden” Satin Bow.

SATIN BOW (4)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Neville Parnham — Good | Jockey: Unrated — (High Profile Stable)
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 99 | Current Rating: 31 | Time Rating: 91 | 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Elite Time Rating (91). Parnham stable is top-tier.
    • ❌ Cons: Still a maiden after 15 starts.
    • Verdict: Her ratings say she is the best horse here. Should finally break through.

TRULY SUPREME (1)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Garry Delane — Shit House | Jockey: Amy Jo Hayes — Average
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 99 | Current Rating: 39 | Time Rating: 90 | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Recent 2nd at GTON. Amy Jo Hayes is a reliable hoop in this grade.
    • ❌ Cons: Massive distance drop (1600m down to 1100m).
    • Verdict: Will be finishing hard; just might find the trip too short.

I’M THAT GIRL (8)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Gordon Keay — Not Rated | Jockey: Elisha Whittington — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 98 | Current Rating: 41 | Time Rating: 87 | 10-Factor Score: 6/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Good current rating (41). Drawn inside.
    • ❌ Cons: Long win drought (331 days).
    • Verdict: Barrier 1 helps, but others are faster.

MATSOKA (3)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Leigh Murray — Not Rated | Jockey: Bailey Webster — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 97 | Current Rating: 41 | Time Rating: 71 | 10-Factor Score: 5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Decent current rating.
    • ❌ Cons: Very low time rating (71). First-up after 200 days.
    • Verdict: Likely to be outpaced early.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

  • 🏆 BEST BET: SATIN BOW
  • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: QUICK AS SILVER
  • 💰 ROUGHIE: COZZIES CHOICE (Over $10)
  • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: MATSOKA (Under $10)
  • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Satin Bow, Quick As Silver, Truly Supreme, Cozzies Choice

RACE 4: TABTOUCH SPRINT (1100m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Very Fast.

The Map:

  • Leaders: Prince Ragnar (2), Safe Hustle (4)
  • On Pace: Simply Rosso (5), Talking Heads (1)
  • Midfield: Big Bopper (7)
  • Backmarkers: Lova Session (3), Mega Reward (6)
    Bias Analysis: Prince Ragnar is a bullet early. If he holds the lead, he’s nearly impossible to catch at Dongara.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

PRINCE RAGNAR (1)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Ken Nightingale — Shit House | Jockey: Rocky Cheung — Average
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 99 | Current Rating: 55 | Time Rating: 93 | 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Highest Current Rating. Highest Time Rating. Deep form at Belmont and Geraldton.
    • ❌ Cons: Carrying 63kg.
    • Verdict: The clear class runner. Should simply be too fast and too strong.

TALKING HEADS (6)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Kylie Craig — Shit House | Jockey: Madi Derrick — Average
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 50 | Time Rating: 91 | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Top Race Rating (100). Won only start at this course.
    • ❌ Cons: First-up after 8 months.
    • Verdict: The track specialist. The only one likely to challenge the favorite.

LOVA SESSION (3)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Peter Bamford — Average | Jockey: Ava Catarino — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 86 | Current Rating: 51 | Time Rating: 93 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: High-quality mare with high time figures.
    • ❌ Cons: Resuming; distance is too short (usually a 1400m+ horse).
    • Verdict: Class alone gets her in the finish if the leaders cut each other’s throats.

SAFE HUSTLE (5)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Julia Martin — Shit House | Jockey: Elisha Whittington — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 79 | Current Rating: 50 | Time Rating: 91 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Fit and racing. Proven winner at 1100m.
    • ❌ Cons: Low trainer/jockey stats.
    • Verdict: Will be in the firing line early; can hang on for a place.

SIMPLY ROSSO (2)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Kevin Mahoney — Shit House | Jockey: Joseph See — Poor
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 82 | Current Rating: 47 | Time Rating: 93 | 10-Factor Score: 6/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Strong time rating. Proven distance winner.
    • ❌ Cons: Poor overall winning stats recently.
    • Verdict: Needs luck to beat the top few.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

  • 🏆 BEST BET: PRINCE RAGNAR
  • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: TALKING HEADS
  • 💰 ROUGHIE: LOVA SESSION (Over $10)
  • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: SIMPLY ROSSO (Under $10)
  • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Prince Ragnar, Talking Heads, Lova Session, Safe Hustle

RACE 5: DONGARA SWAN DRAUGHT CUP (1850m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Slow to Average.

The Map:

  • Leaders: Argyle Star (1), Kentucky Blue (9)
  • On Pace: Truevinsky (4), Cantilever (14)
  • Midfield: Becalotti (6), Let’s Sea (15)
  • Backmarkers: Sunny Times (2), Miff Muffered Moof (16)
    Bias Analysis: Argyle Star will crawl and try to kick away on the turn. Becalotti is the class closer.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

ARGYLE STAR (6)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Josh Brown — Average | Jockey: Rocky Cheung — Average
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 49 | Time Rating: 88 | 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Top Race Rating. Barrier 1. Controls the tempo.
    • ❌ Cons: Time rating is not the highest in field.
    • Verdict: Hard to run down if he gets his own way in front.

BECALOTTI (4)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Tiarnna Noske — Average | Jockey: Jarrad Noske — Elite/Unrated
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 90 | Current Rating: 53 | Time Rating: 91 | 10-Factor Score: 9/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: 100% distance record. Jarrad Noske is the best jockey in the meeting.
    • ❌ Cons: Long time since last win.
    • Verdict: The class factor in the Cup. Expect her to swamp them late.

SUNNY TIMES (10)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Mack Hall — Good | Jockey: Madi Derrick — Average
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 90 | Current Rating: 48 | Time Rating: 89 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Top trainer. Stays the trip all day.
    • ❌ Cons: Barrier 2 can be tricky if they slow the pace.
    • Verdict: A genuine threat if the race becomes a test of stamina.

TRUEVINSKY (1)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Jayce Buckley — Shit House | Jockey: Giaan O’Donnell — Poor
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 79 | Current Rating: 52 | Time Rating: 92 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Strong time ratings. Class drop from Ascot.
    • ❌ Cons: Poor trainer stats. Perennial placer.
    • Verdict: Place heavy chance; will be thereabouts.

LET’S SEA (9)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Tony Scally — Good | Jockey: Jefferson Tsang — Poor
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 83 | Current Rating: 49 | Time Rating: 93 | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Shared highest Time Rating (93). Very proven stayer.
    • ❌ Cons: Wide gate (15).
    • Verdict: If he can cross early, he’s a massive win chance.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

  • 🏆 BEST BET: BECALOTTI
  • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: ARGYLE STAR
  • 💰 ROUGHIE: MIFF MUFFERED MOOF (Over $10)
  • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: KENTUCKY BLUE (Under $10)
  • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Becalotti, Argyle Star, Sunny Times, Let’s Sea

RACE 6: HUNGRY’S – GREG ALEXANDER MEMORIAL HANDICAP (1200m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average.

The Map:

  • Leaders: Ironclad Boy (5), The Rush (3)
  • On Pace: Choice Bid (1), Rubick Delight (4)
  • Midfield: Run Teddy Run (2), Passion Prince (8)
  • Backmarkers: Lim’s Sarbach (10)
    Bias Analysis: Ironclad Boy looks the dominant front runner; Choice Bid will stick to the rail from Barrier 1.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

IRONCLAD BOY (2)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Tony Scally — Good | Jockey: Jefferson Tsang — Poor
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 48 | Time Rating: 88 | 10-Factor Score: 8/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Top Race Rating. Class horse resuming. Good trainer.
    • ❌ Cons: Jockey form is a concern.
    • Verdict: If fit, he simply wins. The class stands out.

THE RUSH (1)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Malcolm Mackenzie — Shit House | Jockey: Sharni Webster — Unrated
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 89 | Current Rating: 51 | Time Rating: 93 | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Highest Time Rating (93). Last start winner.
    • ❌ Cons: Poor trainer stats. Top weight (60.5kg).
    • Verdict: The main threat to the favorite. Hard fit and in winning form.

PASSION PRINCE (8)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Jackie Scott — Shit House | Jockey: Amy Jo Hayes — Average
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 91 | Current Rating: 48 | Time Rating: 89 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Solid Race Rating. Competitive time figures.
    • ❌ Cons: Hasn’t won for 2 years.
    • Verdict: A reliable place getter who can upset them if the leaders fail.

CHOICE BID (5)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Leigh Murray — Not Rated | Jockey: Bailey Webster — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 87 | Current Rating: 48 | Time Rating: 86 | 10-Factor Score: 6/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Barrier 1. Usually reliable on this circuit.
    • ❌ Cons: Low time rating.
    • Verdict: The “map” horse of the race. Will get every chance from the draw.

LIM’S SARBACH (3)

  • 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Sean Rains — Shit House | Jockey: Kristy Bennett — Shit House
  • 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 79 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: 95 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
  • 📝 The Report:
    • ✅ Pros: Elite Time Rating (95).
    • ❌ Cons: Barrier 10. Distance drop.
    • Verdict: Will be flying home late. Great for exotics.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

  • 🏆 BEST BET: IRONCLAD BOY
  • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: THE RUSH
  • 💰 ROUGHIE: RUN TEDDY RUN (Over $10)
  • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: THREE AY EM (Under $10)
  • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Ironclad Boy, The Rush, Passion Prince, Choice Bid

MEETING SUMMARY & STAKING PLAN

📘 THE $100 PLAY BOOK

  • Race 1 – Loona Dawn – WIN – $20
  • Race 2 – Battle On Battler – WIN – $15
  • Race 3 – Satin Bow – WIN – $15
  • Race 4 – Prince Ragnar – WIN – $20
  • Race 5 – Becalotti – WIN – $15
  • Race 6 – Ironclad Boy – WIN – $15

🧩 THE QUADDIE STRATEGY ($50 Budget)

  • Leg 1: Satin Bow, Quick As Silver
  • Leg 2: Prince Ragnar, Talking Heads
  • Leg 3: Becalotti, Argyle Star, Sunny Times
  • Leg 4: Ironclad Boy, The Rush
  • Flexi: $50 for 208%

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Track Info

Track: Dongara-Irwin
Meeting Type: Country
Bais Report