Date: 09 May 2026
Meeting: Kembla Grange
Track Condition: Soft 5 (Expected)
Rail: +3m 1100m-W/Post, True Remainder
๐ TRACK BIAS & PENETROMETER REPORT
Historical Analysis: Kembla Grange is a large, spacious circuit (2200m circumference) with a long 420m home straight. Historically, it is one of the fairest tracks in New South Wales. However, with the rail out 3m, there is a statistical slight advantage (+4.2%) to horses settling in the first four, particularly over the 1000m and 1200m starts where the “short” run to the first turn can trap wide runners.
Expected Play:
- Sprint (1000m-1200m): Advantage to those drawn barriers 1-5 who can hold a position. The 1000m start is a chute junction; horses that can “kick” early often find the fence and become very hard to run down.
- Mile (1400m-1600m): Bias is negligible. The long straight allows backmarkers every opportunity if the tempo is genuine.
- Current Forecast: On a Soft 5, the track usually remains consistent across the lanes, though the inside can become “chewed” by the later races.
RACE 1: MMJ REAL ESTATE WOLLONGONG MAIDEN (1000m)
๐บ๏ธ DETAILED SPEED MAP
Tempo Prediction: Average to Fast
Average Settling (Last 3 Starts):
- Our Lady Peace: (1, 4, 1) -> Avg: 2.0 (Barrier 1) -> Leader
- Cold Gin: (4, 3, 2) -> Avg: 3.0 (Barrier 5) -> On Pace
- Zousika: (3, Trial, Trial) -> Avg: 3.0 (Barrier 9) -> On Pace/Wide
- Satin And Cash: (6, 2, 9) -> Avg: 5.6 (Barrier 4) -> Midfield
- Vingt Neuf Noir: (8, 12, 6) -> Avg: 8.6 (Barrier 3) -> Backmarker
The Map:
- Leaders: Our Lady Peace
- On Pace: Zousika, Cold Gin, Terra Lumina
- Midfield: Satin And Cash, Honour Award, Sovereign Wave
- Backmarkers: Vingt Neuf Noir, Arizona Loner, College Boy
Bias Analysis: Our Lady Peace is perfectly suited by the map from barrier 1 to control the fence. Zousika will need luck to slot in from 9.
๐ TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS
ZOUSIKA (Barrier 9)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald โ Elite
- Jockey: Mitchell Bell โ Good
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: Data Not Found | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Top rated (100). Coming out of high-quality metro grade. Massive Jockey/Trainer strike rate.
- โ Cons: Barrier 9 is the query; needs to work to cross or find cover.
- Verdict: The class rater. If Mitchell Bell finds a spot, the horse’s superior engine should prevail.
OUR LADY PEACE (Barrier 1)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Gary Portelli โ Average
- Jockey: Grant Buckley โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 81 | Current Rating: 0 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 8/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Map winner. Barrier 1. Excellent 2nd at track/dist last start.
- โ Cons: Human ratings are lower than the top rater. Lacks the “Elite” polish.
- Verdict: Will lead for a long way; the one they have to get past.
SATIN AND CASH (Barrier 4)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Richard Litt โ Average
- Jockey: Jean Van Overmeire โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 70 | Current Rating: 0 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 7/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Suited by a soft draw. Improved fitness (2nd up). Strong 2nd at Gosford first up.
- โ Cons: Slower settling speed might see her in traffic.
- Verdict: Solid each-way contender who handles the track well.
COLD GIN (Barrier 5)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Bjorn Baker โ Good
- Jockey: Rory Hutchings โ Good
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 66 | Current Rating: 0 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 7/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Strong metro form lines ($60k races). Bjorn Baker in great form.
- โ Cons: 0 wins from 4 starts; has had its chances to break through.
- Verdict: Highly competitive at provincial level; the main danger to the top two.
VINGT NEUF NOIR (Barrier 3)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: John Thompson โ Average
- Jockey: Keagan Latham โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 64 | Current Rating: 18 | Time Rating: 85
- 10-Factor Score: 6/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Good draw (3). Strong senior jockey in Latham. Decent Time Rating (85).
- โ Cons: First up after a long break. 0-0-6 career record is poor.
- Verdict: Place at best; likely to find them too sharp over 1000m.
๐ธ BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
๐ BEST BET: Zousika
โ ๏ธ DANGER: Our Lady Peace
๐ฐ ROUGHIE: Satin And Cash (>$10)
๐ซ AVOID: Arizona Loner (Poor ratings/trials)
๐ฎ EXOTIC: Box: Zousika, Our Lady Peace, Satin And Cash, Cold Gin
RACE 2: PETRA DEAN CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1000m)
๐บ๏ธ DETAILED SPEED MAP
Tempo Prediction: Fast
Average Settling (Last 3 Starts):
- Waveton: (1, 3, 2) -> Avg: 2.0 (Barrier 5) -> Leader
- Luskintyre: (4, 7, 3) -> Avg: 4.6 (Barrier 1) -> On Pace
- Dolce Vita: (2, 6, 5) -> Avg: 4.3 (Barrier 3) -> On Pace
- Captivating Tycoon: (3, 5, 8) -> Avg: 5.3 (Barrier 8) -> Midfield
The Map:
- Leaders: Waveton
- On Pace: Luskintyre, Dolce Vita, Gravel Road
- Midfield: Captivating Tycoon, All The Way Mae
- Backmarkers: The Pacific, Indecisive
Bias Analysis: Fast tempo suits Dolce Vita and Luskintyre who can sit just behind the lead and peel off.
๐ TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS
CAPTIVATING TYCOON (Barrier 8)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Richard & Will Freedman โ Average
- Jockey: Lee Magorrian โ Shit House
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 0 | Time Rating: 96
- 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Joint top-rated (100). Highest Time Rating (96). Won at course and distance.
- โ Cons: Poor jockey rating. Wide draw (8). First up.
- Verdict: The class runner. If he handles the weight and draw, he wins.
DOLCE VITA (Barrier 3)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Bjorn Baker โ Good
- Jockey: Jean Van Overmeire โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 0 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 8/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Top rated (100). Map winner. Last-start dominant winner. Strong J/T combo.
- โ Cons: Taking on Class 1 for the first time.
- Verdict: In form and drawn perfectly to stalk the lead.
WAVETON (Barrier 5)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Sara Ryan โ Average
- Jockey: Grant Buckley โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 23 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Top rated (100). Natural leader. Coming off a big win at Tamworth.
- โ Cons: This is a much deeper field than a country maiden.
- Verdict: Will take some catching but the last 100m will be the test.
LUSKINTYRE (Barrier 1)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Ron Quinton โ Elite
- Jockey: Matt Kirk โ Average (4kg Claim)
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 98 | Current Rating: 33 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 7/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Elite trainer. Barrier 1. Significant weight drop with claim.
- โ Cons: Apprentice jockey is inexperienced. First up for 208 days.
- Verdict: Huge value chance. If the apprentice holds the rail, sheโs a massive threat.
THE PACIFIC (Barrier 7)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Geoff Allendorf โ Average
- Jockey: Data Not Found
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 95 | Current Rating: 32 | Time Rating: 92
- 10-Factor Score: 6/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: High Time Rating (92). Undefeated at track and distance.
- โ Cons: Off for 289 days. 5yo taking on younger, faster types.
- Verdict: Watch market; horse loves Kembla but might need the run.
๐ธ BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
๐ BEST BET: Dolce Vita
โ ๏ธ DANGER: Captivating Tycoon
๐ฐ ROUGHIE: Luskintyre (>$10)
๐ซ AVOID: Indecisive (Long layoff, poor ratings)
๐ฎ EXOTIC: Box: Dolce Vita, Captivating Tycoon, Waveton, Luskintyre
RACE 3: NANNY NET MIDWAY MAIDEN PLATE (1400m)
๐บ๏ธ DETAILED SPEED MAP
Tempo Prediction: Slow to Average
Average Settling (Last 3 Starts):
- Encryptix: (2, Trial, Trial) -> Avg: 2.0 (Barrier 1) -> Leader
- Pacific Mick: (2, 5, 2) -> Avg: 3.0 (Barrier 11) -> On Pace/Wide
- Get Litt: (10, 6, 8) -> Avg: 8.0 (Barrier 6) -> Midfield
- The Champion: (10, 9, 8) -> Avg: 9.0 (Barrier 8) -> Backmarker
The Map:
- Leaders: Encryptix
- On Pace: Clear Blue Day, Pacific Mick, Farsain
- Midfield: Get Litt, Let’s Be Honest, Take A Day Off
- Backmarkers: Sirius Moss, Luna Cruiser, The Champion
Bias Analysis: Encryptix gets a massive advantage from the slow tempo/rail combo.
๐ TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS
ENCRYPTIX (Barrier 1)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Gregory McFarlane โ Average
- Jockey: Jess Taylor โ Shit House
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 0 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 9/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Top rated (100). Maps to lead unchallenged. Excellent debut performance.
- โ Cons: Jockey rating is a weakness. Query stepping up to 1400m.
- Verdict: The one to beat. He should control the tempo from the front.
GET LITT (Barrier 6)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Richard Litt โ Average
- Jockey: Mitchell Bell โ Good
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 96 | Current Rating: 23 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 8/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Massive Jockey upgrade. High race rating. Handles the distance.
- โ Cons: Failed as favorite last start. Slower settling speed.
- Verdict: The clear danger. If the pace is genuine, Mitchell Bell will have her flying home.
TAKE A DAY OFF (Barrier 3)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Paul & Martha Cave โ Shit House
- Jockey: Andrew Calder โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 84 | Current Rating: 22 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Peak fitness (3rd up). Good draw (3).
- โ Cons: Poor trainer rating. Beaten nearly 9L last start.
- Verdict: Minor place claims only; ratings are significantly behind top two.
PACIFIC MICK (Barrier 11)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Kerry Parker โ Average
- Jockey: Rebecca Bronett Prag โ Poor
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 77 | Current Rating: 40 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 6/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Consistent profile. Local trainer.
- โ Cons: Barrier 11 and 3kg claimer on a horse that needs to cross.
- Verdict: Likely to be caught wide; looking elsewhere for the winner.
THE CHAMPION (Barrier 8)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Gary Portelli โ Average
- Jockey: Rory Hutchings โ Good
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 62 | Current Rating: 22 | Time Rating: 80
- 10-Factor Score: 5.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Decent Time Rating (80). Senior jockey.
- โ Cons: Low overall race rating. 0-1-5 record shows lack of winning punch.
- Verdict: Exotic filler only.
๐ธ BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
๐ BEST BET: Encryptix
โ ๏ธ DANGER: Get Litt
๐ฐ ROUGHIE: Pacific Mick (>$10)
๐ซ AVOID: Think I’m In (Low ratings for debut)
๐ฎ EXOTIC: Box: Encryptix, Get Litt, Take A Day Off, Pacific Mick
RACE 4: BERNADETTE DEAN BM64 HANDICAP (1200m)
๐บ๏ธ DETAILED SPEED MAP
Tempo Prediction: Average
Average Settling (Last 3 Starts):
- Take The Rap: (10, 5, 8) -> Avg: 7.6 (Barrier 8) -> On Pace/Wide
- Cool Lad: (6, 6, 6) -> Avg: 6.0 (Barrier 1) -> On Pace
- Hellova Nature: (10, 7, 11) -> Avg: 9.3 (Barrier 2) -> Midfield
- Forcefilly: (10, 4, 2) -> Avg: 5.3 (Barrier 3) -> On Pace
The Map:
- Leaders: Take The Rap (to cross), Altair I Am
- On Pace: Cool Lad, Forcefilly
- Midfield: Hellova Nature, Wootton Way
- Backmarkers: Soul Lady, La Bella Bondi
Bias Analysis: Cool Lad gets the box seat from barrier 1. Forcefilly maps for the run of the race.
๐ TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS
COOL LAD (Barrier 1)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Matthew Smith โ Average
- Jockey: Keagan Latham โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 50 | Time Rating: 95
- 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Top rated (100). Highest Time Rating (95). Peak fitness. Barrier 1. Senior Jockey.
- โ Cons: 7yo carrying top weight (59kg).
- Verdict: The form horse. Won well last start and everything points to a repeat performance.
FORCEFILLY (Barrier 3)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Brad Widdup โ Elite
- Jockey: Leeshelle Small โ Elite (3kg Claim)
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 87 | Current Rating: 39 | Time Rating: 83
- 10-Factor Score: 9/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Elite trainer and jockey booking. Significant 3kg claim. Maps perfectly.
- โ Cons: Lower Time Rating (83) than the top tier.
- Verdict: The weight special. Widdup and Small are a deadly combination in these races.
HELLOVA NATURE (Barrier 2)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Kristen Buchanan โ Good
- Jockey: Jess Taylor โ Shit House
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 81 | Current Rating: 52 | Time Rating: 94
- 10-Factor Score: 8/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Massive Time Rating (94). Strong 2nd in Quality grade last start.
- โ Cons: 877 days since last win. Poor jockey rating.
- Verdict: Ratings say he’s flying, but he’s forgotten how to win. Place only.
TAKE THE RAP (Barrier 8)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Norm Gardner โ Average
- Jockey: Rebecca Bronett Prag โ Poor (3kg Claim)
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 71 | Current Rating: 53 | Time Rating: 93
- 10-Factor Score: 7/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Significant class drop from Open/BM82. Strong Time Rating.
- โ Cons: 63kg (before claim). Wide barrier (8).
- Verdict: Class alone keeps him in it, but the weight/draw make it difficult.
WOOTTON WAY (Barrier 6)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Chris Waller โ Good
- Jockey: Lee Magorrian โ Shit House
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 55 | Current Rating: 25 | Time Rating: 94
- 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Waller Factor. Very high Time Rating (94).
- โ Cons: First up. Very low overall race rating (55). Poor jockey.
- Verdict: Watch for Waller money; the time rating is too high to ignore.
๐ธ BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
๐ BEST BET: Cool Lad
โ ๏ธ DANGER: Forcefilly
๐ฐ ROUGHIE: Hellova Nature (If >$10)
๐ซ AVOID: Altair I Am (Poor form)
๐ฎ EXOTIC: Box: Cool Lad, Forcefilly, Hellova Nature, Wootton Way
RACE 5: GOLDEN KIKI PROVINCIAL BM68 (1400m)
๐บ๏ธ DETAILED SPEED MAP
Tempo Prediction: Average
Average Settling (Last 3 Starts):
- Audenzia: (7, 4, 9) -> Avg: 6.6 (Barrier 1) -> Leader/On Pace
- Magical Moments: (1, 7, 5) -> Avg: 4.3 (Barrier 5) -> Leader
- Mogwai: (4, 11, 1) -> Avg: 5.3 (Barrier 3) -> On Pace
- Sonofdec: (3, 12, 8) -> Avg: 7.6 (Barrier 6) -> Midfield
The Map:
- Leaders: Magical Moments, Audenzia
- On Pace: Mogwai, Go Glenn
- Midfield: Sonofdec, Hellova Nature
- Backmarkers: Banyan Tree, London Star
Bias Analysis: Audenzia gets the rail advantage to hold the front or sit box seat.
๐ TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS
AUDENZIA (Barrier 1)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Diane Poidevin-Laine โ Average
- Jockey: Pierre Boudvillain โ Elite (40% SR on horse)
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 48 | Time Rating: 90
- 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Top rated (100). Dominant last-start winner at track. Elite jockey who loves this horse. Barrier 1.
- โ Cons: Up in grade. Quick 4-day backup.
- Verdict: The clear top pick. In-form and maps for the perfect run.
MOGWAI (Barrier 3)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Robert & Luke Price โ Good
- Jockey: Keagan Latham โ Average (100% SR on horse)
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 73 | Current Rating: 52 | Time Rating: 97
- 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Highest Time Rating in the field (97). Local stable. Senior jockey back on.
- โ Cons: Only 3 wins from 23 starts. Slower tempo might not suit his closing speed.
- Verdict: Massive danger. Back at his home track, he is a different horse.
MAGICAL MOMENTS (Barrier 5)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter โ Average
- Jockey: Jean Van Overmeire โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 76 | Current Rating: 41 | Time Rating: 93
- 10-Factor Score: 8/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Last start track/dist winner. Maps to lead. Consistent profile.
- โ Cons: Up in grade.
- Verdict: The leader and the benchmark for tempo. Hard to knock.
SONOFDEC (Barrier 6)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Jay Hopkins โ Shit House
- Jockey: Matt Kirk โ Average (4kg Claim)
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 57 | Current Rating: 51 | Time Rating: 90
- 10-Factor Score: 7/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Massive class dropper. Strong 3rd resuming in metro grade.
- โ Cons: 65kg top weight (even with claim). Poor trainer rating.
- Verdict: Class will carry him close, but the weight is a huge anchor.
HELLOVA NATURE (Barrier 7)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Kristen Buchanan โ Good
- Jockey: Lee Magorrian โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 57 | Current Rating: 52 | Time Rating: 94
- 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: High Time Rating. Reliable placegetter.
- โ Cons: Non-winner profile. Slower settling speed.
- Verdict: Including for exotics only.
๐ธ BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
๐ BEST BET: Audenzia
โ ๏ธ DANGER: Mogwai
๐ฐ ROUGHIE: Magical Moments (If >$10)
๐ซ AVOID: Sonofdec (Price vs Weight risk)
๐ฎ EXOTIC: Box: Audenzia, Mogwai, Magical Moments, Sonofdec
RACE 6: MOTHER’S DAY SUPER MAIDEN PLATE (1600m)
๐บ๏ธ DETAILED SPEED MAP
Tempo Prediction: Slow
Average Settling (Last 3 Starts):
- Crusader Voyage: (3, 3, 4) -> Avg: 3.3 (Barrier 5) -> Leader
- Wormington: (6, 8, 2) -> Avg: 5.3 (Barrier 11) -> On Pace/Wide
- Pink Persuasion: (10, 6, 9) -> Avg: 8.3 (Barrier 1) -> Backmarker
- Vision In A Dream: (3, 5, 8) -> Avg: 5.3 (Barrier 7) -> On Pace
The Map:
- Leaders: Crusader Voyage, Think I Will
- On Pace: Vision In A Dream, Salt Spray, Wormington
- Midfield: Kawerau, Radion, Neferusobek
- Backmarkers: Pink Persuasion, Zippy Lion
Bias Analysis: Crusader Voyage maps to lead on a slow tempoโthe ultimate map advantage.
๐ TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS
CRUSADER VOYAGE (Barrier 5)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Chris Waller โ Good
- Jockey: Mitchell Bell โ Good
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 28 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Top rated (100). Maps for a soft lead. Waller Factor dropping from metro grade. Senior jockey.
- โ Cons: 9 starts for 0 wins.
- Verdict: Everything alignes today. Map, trainer, and jockey make him the standout.
NEFERUSOBEK (Barrier 12)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Diane Poidevin-Laine โ Average
- Jockey: Pierre Boudvillain โ Elite
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 85 | Current Rating: 32 | Time Rating: 92
- 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Strong Time Rating (92). Elite jockey engagement.
- โ Cons: Barrier 12. Slower settling speed on a slow tempo.
- Verdict: The main engine threat. Needs a good ride from the wide gate.
PINK PERSUASION (Barrier 1)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Chris Waller โ Good
- Jockey: Rory Hutchings โ Good
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 77 | Current Rating: 20 | Time Rating: 88
- 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Barrier 1. Consistent placegetter. Waller runner.
- โ Cons: Backmarker from barrier 1 on a slow tempoโdanger of being boxed in.
- Verdict: Reliable place chance; will need the gaps to open.
WORMINGTON (Barrier 11)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Ross McConville โ Good
- Jockey: Jean Van Overmeire โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 76 | Current Rating: 25 | Time Rating: 90
- 10-Factor Score: 7/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Local stable. Good Time Rating. In-form jockey.
- โ Cons: Wide barrier (11).
- Verdict: Each-way contender if he can slot in with cover.
VISION IN A DREAM (Barrier 7)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Peter Snowden โ Elite
- Jockey: Keagan Latham โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 61 | Current Rating: 27 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 7/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Elite trainer. Solid local jockey. Placed at Newcastle.
- โ Cons: First up after 58 days. Low race rating.
- Verdict: Respect the Snowden stable; watch for market support.
๐ธ BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
๐ BEST BET: Crusader Voyage
โ ๏ธ DANGER: Neferusobek
๐ฐ ROUGHIE: Wormington (>$10)
๐ซ AVOID: Salt Spray (Underperforming ratings)
๐ฎ EXOTIC: Box: Crusader Voyage, Neferusobek, Pink Persuasion, Wormington
RACE 7: CASEY SABLOWSKI BM64 HANDICAP (1600m)
๐บ๏ธ DETAILED SPEED MAP
Tempo Prediction: Average
Average Settling (Last 3 Starts):
- Mcadam: (1, 4, 8) -> Avg: 4.3 (Barrier 5) -> Leader
- Just Shane: (3, 8, 4) -> Avg: 5.0 (Barrier 8) -> On Pace
- Eynesbury: (5, 5, 9) -> Avg: 6.3 (Barrier 3) -> On Pace
- Angel City: (3, 5, 3) -> Avg: 3.6 (Barrier 9) -> On Pace/Wide
The Map:
- Leaders: Mcadam
- On Pace: Just Shane, Eynesbury, Spice Prawn
- Midfield: Ballpark, Monte Maximus, Angel City
- Backmarkers: Alice Mae, Ivy Legend
Bias Analysis: Mcadam and Eynesbury are favored by the map to control the mile.
๐ TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS
ANGEL CITY (Barrier 9)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Matthew Smith โ Average
- Jockey: Pierre Boudvillain โ Elite
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 38 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 9/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Top rated (100). Elite jockey engaged. Consistent winning form.
- โ Cons: Barrier 9 at the mile. Step up in grade.
- Verdict: The class rater. If she can find cover, she has the best turn of foot in the race.
JUST SHANE (Barrier 8)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Tara & Philippe Vigouroux โ Shit House
- Jockey: Olivia Chambers โ Shit House
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 96 | Current Rating: 49 | Time Rating: 87
- 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Local winner. Maps for a perfect run. High race rating.
- โ Cons: Very poor human ratings. Low Time Rating (87).
- Verdict: The ratings suggest he’s a chance, but the human stats and time figures are a red flag.
MCADAM (Barrier 5)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter โ Average
- Jockey: Jean Van Overmeire โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 87 | Current Rating: 47 | Time Rating: 91
- 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Last start dominant winner. Highest Time Rating for on-pace (91). Natural leader.
- โ Cons: Up in grade.
- Verdict: The horse to beat. If he dictates the tempo, he will be very hard to run down.
UBER IN (Barrier 10)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Richard Litt โ Average
- Jockey: Mitchell Bell โ Good
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 85 | Current Rating: 47 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
- 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Massive Jockey upgrade. In winning form (2 of last 3).
- โ Cons: Wide barrier (10). Untried at the mile.
- Verdict: Flying at the moment, but the distance and draw are significant queries.
MONTE MAXIMUS (Barrier 4)
๐ฅ Human Ratings:
- Trainer: Robert & Luke Price โ Good
- Jockey: Grant Buckley โ Average
๐ Data Profile: - Race Rating: 84 | Current Rating: 47 | Time Rating: 92
- 10-Factor Score: 8/10
๐ The Report: - โ Pros: Local stable. High Time Rating (92). Major gear change (Blinkers ON).
- โ Cons: Long time between wins (300 days).
- Verdict: The gear change is the key. Huge potential for improvement at odds.
๐ธ BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
๐ BEST BET: Angel City
โ ๏ธ DANGER: Mcadam
๐ฐ ROUGHIE: Monte Maximus (>$10)
๐ซ AVOID: Ballpark (Declining ratings)
๐ฎ EXOTIC: Box: Angel City, Mcadam, Monte Maximus, Uber In
MEETING SUMMARY & STAKING PLAN
๐ THE $100 PLAY BOOK
- Race 1: Zousika โ WIN โ $20
- Race 2: Dolce Vita โ WIN โ $15
- Race 4: Cool Lad โ WIN โ $20
- Race 5: Audenzia โ WIN โ $20
- Race 6: Crusader Voyage โ WIN โ $15
- Race 7: Monte Maximus โ EACH WAY โ $10 ($5/$5)
๐งฉ THE QUADDIE STRATEGY ($50 Budget)
- Leg 1 (R4): Cool Lad, Forcefilly, Hellova Nature
- Leg 2 (R5): Audenzia, Mogwai, Magical Moments
- Leg 3 (R6): Crusader Voyage, Neferusobek, Pink Persuasion
- Leg 4 (R7): Angel City, Mcadam, Monte Maximus, Uber In
- Combination: 3 x 3 x 3 x 4 = 108 combinations.
- Flexi Percentage: $50 / 108 = 46.3%
FINAL NOTE: Prices and ratings correct at time of analysis. Please bet within your means. Human ratings are statistical derivations from provided data.