Ipswich Racing Analysis Report – 09/05/2026

🏛️ TRACK BIAS & DYNAMIC ANALYSIS

Track Condition: Soft 7 | Rail: +2m Entire Circuit

Historical Pattern: Ipswich is a circular track with a short 300m straight. It is historically one of Australia’s most prominent “leader-biased” tracks.

• Sprint Bias (Up to 1400m): Significant advantage to those drawn in barriers 1–6 who can hold a position in the first four. The win percentage for barriers 1-2 at this distance is ~12.5%, dropping to <3% for barriers 11+.
• Distance Bias (1600m+): While the tempo can slacken, the short straight makes it nearly impossible for backmarkers to loop the field. Horses settling worse than 6th at the 400m mark have a <15% strike rate here.
• Expected Play: With a Soft 7 rating, the “fast lane” is often 2-3 horses off the fence by mid-meeting, but being in the lead or on the pace remains the primary requirement for success.

RACE 1: TAB QTIS Three-Year-Old Maiden Plate (1950m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average

The Map:

• Leaders: Tormanzor (2), Elegant Force (10)
• On Pace: Secret Fenkel (6), Promises Made (5), Strike Me Pink (12)
• Midfield: Cryption’s Desire (14), Five Of Us (7), Verry Stella (9)
• Backmarkers: Our Brave Lini (17), Ship Happens (1), Paradise As Usual (13)
  Bias Analysis: Tormanzor is the map winner. Settling in the first two from an inside draw on a leader-biased track is the optimal profile for this distance.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

TORMANZOR (Barrier 2)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald (Elite) | Jockey: Micheal Hellyer (Average)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 26 | 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Elite stable traveling North; Maps to lead/trail; Highest class rating.
  • ❌ Cons: Has had chances in Sydney (0/5).
  • Verdict: The class runner who gets every favor on the map.

OUR BRAVE LINI (Barrier 17)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: William Kropp (Good) | Jockey: Brandon Lerena (Good)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 86 | Current Rating: 23 | Time Rating: 91 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Massive 91 Time Rating; Strong jockey/trainer combo.
  • ❌ Cons: Barrier 17 is a disaster; Likely to be too far back.
  • Verdict: The best “closer,” but the bias works against her today.

STRIKE ME PINK (Barrier 12)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Corey & Kylie Geran (Average) | Jockey: Gary Geran (Good)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 75 | Current Rating: 27 | Time Rating: 88 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Reliable jockey; Consistent time figures.
  • ❌ Cons: Wide draw; 10 starts for 0 wins.
  • Verdict: Solid place chance if she can find a spot mid-race.

ELEGANT FORCE (Barrier 10)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Kris Lees (Good) | Jockey: Benjamin Osmond (Average)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 74 | Current Rating: 28 | Time Rating: 84 | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Mapped to sit on-pace; Rock hard fitness (9/9 runs).
  • ❌ Cons: Wide gate; Lacks a knockout punch.
  • Verdict: The main danger to the favorite given her tactical speed.

SECRET FENKEL (Barrier 6)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Marcus Wilson (Average) | Jockey: Dylan Turner (Shit House)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 61 | Current Rating: 29 | Time Rating: 89 | 10-Factor Score: 5.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Good draw; Strong time figure last start.
  • ❌ Cons: Statistical red flag on jockey form.
  • Verdict: Place prospect only due to human variables.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

• 🏆 BEST BET: Tormanzor
• ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: Elegant Force
• 💰 ROUGHIE: Strike Me Pink (Expected >$10)
• 🚫 AVOID/LAY: Secret Fenkel (Jockey strike rate)
• 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Tormanzor, Our Brave Lini, Elegant Force, Strike Me Pink

RACE 2: GREAT NORTHERN QTIS 2YO Maiden Plate (1350m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Slow

The Map:

• Leaders: Steventown (3)
• On Pace: Raising Suspicion (4), Pirouette Girl (8)
• Midfield: Zou Zou Kapadokia (6), Le Starcell (11)
• Backmarkers: Alto Luna (7), Hang Up (10)
  Bias Analysis: In a slow-tempo 2YO race, the leader (Steventown) has a massive mathematical advantage.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

ZOU ZOU KAPADOKIA (Barrier 6)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Kevin Kemp (Average) | Jockey: Benjamin Osmond (Average)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 18 | Time Rating: 77 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Top-rated; Experience edge (5 starts).
  • ❌ Cons: Average jockey/trainer stats.
  • Verdict: The class runner of the race.

PIROUETTE GIRL (Barrier 8)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Peter Quinlan (Shit House) | Jockey: Scott Sheargold (Average)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 96 | Current Rating: 20 | 10-Factor Score: 5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: High race rating; Placed at Gold Coast.
  • ❌ Cons: Trainer form is at the bottom of the scale.
  • Verdict: Hard to back with confidence despite the rating.

STEVENTOWN (Barrier 3)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Matt Kropp (Good) | Jockey: Fred Larson (Average)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 94 | Current Rating: 0 | 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Perfect map to lead; Strong debut (2nd).
  • ❌ Cons: Stepping up to 1350m second-up.
  • Verdict: The best tactical play in the race.

ALTO LUNA (Barrier 7)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Ryan Tyrell (Shit House) | Jockey: Ashley Butler (Good)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 85 | Current Rating: 0 | 10-Factor Score: 6/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Jockey upgrade; Blinkers ON.
  • ❌ Cons: Poor stable form.
  • Verdict: Speculative value with the gear change.

SAXON SPIRIT (Barrier 12)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Chris & Corey Munce (Good) | Jockey: Bella Youngberry (Good)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 77 | Current Rating: 0 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: High-end human stats; Acceptable debut.
  • ❌ Cons: Barrier 12 is very difficult for a 2YO.
  • Verdict: Needs luck from the draw but has the talent.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

• 🏆 BEST BET: Steventown
• ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: Zou Zou Kapadokia
• 💰 ROUGHIE: Alto Luna (Expected >$10)
• 🚫 AVOID/LAY: Pirouette Girl (Stable form red flag)
• 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Steventown, Zou Zou Kapadokia, Saxon Spirit, Alto Luna

RACE 4: AVS SECURITY RATINGS BAND 0-60 Handicap (1200m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Fast

The Map:

• Leaders: Lucky Artie (5), Xuanfeng (1)
• On Pace: Wayburn (9), Yes I’m Ugly (13)
• Midfield: Bold As Brass (7), Flaxlands (11)
• Backmarkers: Itza Motza (10), Final Voyage (3)
  Bias Analysis: With a fast tempo, Wayburn is ideally placed to sit just off the lead and strike. Bold As Brass is the swooper best suited by the pressure.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

WAYBURN (Barrier 9)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Matthew Dunn (Good) | Jockey: Jett Newman (Good)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 37 | Time Rating: 90 | 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Class drop; Top rated; Strong human variables.
  • ❌ Cons: Wide draw (9).
  • Verdict: The horse to beat based on all metrics.

ITZA MOTZA (Barrier 10)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Billy Healey (Good) | Jockey: Ashley Butler (Good)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 76 | Current Rating: 45 | Time Rating: 92 | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Top Time Rating (92); Elite jockey/trainer.
  • ❌ Cons: 2 wins from 32 (Poor strike rate).
  • Verdict: Best speed figures in the race but finds ways to lose.

BOLD AS BRASS (Barrier 7)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Paul Jenkins (Elite) | Jockey: Jag Guthmann-Chester (Average)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 73 | Current Rating: 42 | Time Rating: 85 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Elite stable; Consistent (42 rating).
  • ❌ Cons: Deep into prep (22nd run).
  • Verdict: Always around the mark and maps for cover.

FLAXLANDS (Barrier 11)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Chris Waller (Good) | Jockey: Jaden Lloyd (Average)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 69 | Current Rating: 28 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Premium stable; Upside off maiden win.
  • ❌ Cons: Bad draw; Up in class.
  • Verdict: One for the exotics on potential.

ELUSIVE DOMINA (Barrier 4)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: James Healy (Average) | Jockey: Tiffani Brooker (Good)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 65 | Current Rating: 42 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Inside draw; Jockey upgrade.
  • ❌ Cons: Poor last start.
  • Verdict: Maps perfectly to track the leaders.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

• 🏆 BEST BET: Wayburn
• ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: Bold As Brass
• 💰 ROUGHIE: Itza Motza (Likely >$10)
• 🚫 AVOID/LAY: Yes I’m Ugly (Low race rating of 35)
• 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Wayburn, Itza Motza, Bold As Brass, Flaxlands

RACE 8: BENCHMARK 62 Handicap (1666m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average

The Map:

• Leaders: Piston Rebel (16), Stranglehold (9)
• On Pace: Noire Emperor (4), Mr Bubbaluski (13)
• Midfield: Madame Cody (11), Sunny Disposition (10)
• Backmarkers: Kozak Prince (6)
  Bias Analysis: Noire Emperor is the map winner from barrier 4. Madame Cody will need an aggressive ride from barrier 11 to not get too far back.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

MADAME CODY (Barrier 11)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Cameron Richardson (Elite) | Jockey: Sean Cormack (Elite)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 51 | Time Rating: 92 | 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Elite/Elite combo; Superior 92 Time Rating.
  • ❌ Cons: Barrier 11.
  • Verdict: The meeting’s best bet on pure data.

PISTON REBEL (Barrier 16)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: William Kropp (Good) | Jockey: Brandon Lerena (Good)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 93 | Current Rating: 52 | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Last start winner; High current rating.
  • ❌ Cons: Barrier 16 is a nightmare over this trip.
  • Verdict: High class but map is very poor.

NOIRE EMPEROR (Barrier 4)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Barry Lockwood (Good) | Jockey: Luke Dempsey (Shit House)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 83 | Current Rating: 53 | Time Rating: 88 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Perfect inside map; Class runner (53 rating).
  • ❌ Cons: Low jockey strike rate.
  • Verdict: The map horse who will get the best run.

SUNNY DISPOSITION (Barrier 5)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Darren Bell (Average) | Jockey: Justin P Stanley (Average)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 75 | Current Rating: 50 | Time Rating: 93 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Huge 93 Time Rating; Soft draw.
  • ❌ Cons: Average human variables.
  • Verdict: The clear roughie value in the race.

MR BUBBALUSKI (Barrier 13)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Jack Bruce (Average) | Jockey: Jag Guthmann-Chester (Average)
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 67 | Current Rating: 48 | Time Rating: 94 | 10-Factor Score: 6/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Fastest 94 Time Rating.
  • ❌ Cons: Low race rating (67); Poor barrier.
  • Verdict: Figures are good but the horse lacks winning consistency.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

• 🏆 BEST BET: Madame Cody
• ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: Noire Emperor
• 💰 ROUGHIE: Sunny Disposition (Expected >$10)
• 🚫 AVOID/LAY: Mr Bubbaluski (Market risk)
• 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Madame Cody, Noire Emperor, Piston Rebel, Sunny Disposition

MEETING SUMMARY & STAKING PLAN

📘 THE $100 PLAY BOOK

• Race 4 – Wayburn – Win – $30
• Race 8 – Madame Cody – Win – $25
• Race 7 – Autumn Heir – Win – $20
• Race 1 – Tormanzor – Win – $10
• Race 3 – Sheriff’s Star – Win – $10
• Race 2 – Alto Luna – Each Way – $5

🧩 THE QUADDIE STRATEGY ($50 Budget)

Leg 1 (R5): Bolshevic Road, Hard As Brok, Electric Arrow, Faithinher

Leg 2 (R6): Pink Vixen, Lord Of Flames, Vintage Vibes, Cansort

Leg 3 (R7): Autumn Heir, Prefer To Dance

Leg 4 (R8): Madame Cody, Noire Emperor, Piston Rebel, Sunny Disposition

Total combinations: 4 x 4 x 2 x 4 = 128. $50 Investment = 39.06% Flexi.

FINAL NOTE: Human ratings are statistical derivations from provided documents. Please bet within your means.