MORUYA 04/04/2026 RACING ANALYSIS -

🏟️ TRACK BIAS & CONDITION REPORT

Track Condition: Soft 5 (as of 30/03/26 – updated current forecast suggests improving surface).

Rail Position: True.

Historical Bias: Moruya is a sand-based all-weather turf track. Historically, when the rail is in the True position on a Soft 5 surface, the track plays remarkably fair, but the short 400m straight puts a premium on horses that can settle in the first four.

Sprint Bias (1010m – 1200m): Strong advantage to barriers 1-4. Statistically, inside gates provide a ~15% higher win rate over these distances.
Middle Distance (1300m – 1425m): The long back straight allows backmarkers to find positions, but the horseshoe turns favor those hugging the rail.
Expected Pattern: Look for horses that can “find the fence” early. Horses drawn wide in the sprint races (R3, R5) will need significant tactical speed to overcome the statistical barrier disadvantage.

RACE 1: BATEMANS BAY, MORUYA AND NAROOMA FUNERALS MAIDEN PLATE (1010m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Fast.

Leaders: Silverwater Kid (2), Reveillon (7).
On Pace: Prairie Legend (4), Stormy Woo (1).
Midfield: Cool As Ted (6).
Backmarkers: Hellcat (5), Fields Unite (8), Hunter One (3).

Bias Analysis: Over 1010m, the speed is usually frantic. Silverwater Kid and Stormy Woo are perfectly drawn to exploit the inside bias.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

PRAIRIE LEGEND (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: John Rolfe — Average
Jockey: Jessica Brookes — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 27 | Time Rating: 84
10-Factor Score: 7/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Top Race Rating (100). Hard fit (3rd up).
❌ Cons: 0-24 career record. Poor strike rate at the distance.
Verdict: The class of the field on paper but a proven non-winner; risky at short odds.

REVEILLON (7)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Michael Gatty — Shit House
Jockey: Deep Shanker — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 95 | Current Rating: 25 | Time Rating: 89
10-Factor Score: 8/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Best Time Rating (89). Proven Moruya performer.
❌ Cons: Wide gate (7). Poor trainer stats.
Verdict: The main danger if the jockey can cross and find the rail early.

SILVERWATER KID (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Robert & Luke Price — Good
Jockey: Brock Ryan — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 85 | Current Rating: 0 | Time Rating: N/A
10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Inside gate (2). Significant jockey/trainer upgrade. Only one start (high upside).
❌ Cons: Beaten 6.8L on debut.
Verdict: Maps to lead. Expecting sharp improvement second-up in this grade.

COOL AS TED (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Scott Collings — Elite
Jockey: Dale Cole — Shit House
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 67 | Current Rating: N/A | Time Rating: N/A
10-Factor Score: 5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Elite trainer stats. Positive trials.
❌ Cons: Poor jockey rating. First race start.
Verdict: The stable is dangerous, but the jockey booking suggests this might be a teaching run.

STORMY WOO (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Paul Facoory — Average
Jockey: Pierre Boudvillain — Elite
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 64 | Current Rating: 28 | Time Rating: 76
10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Rail draw (1). Elite Jockey booking.
❌ Cons: Poor distance strike rate.
Verdict: The best “map” horse in the race. Must include in exotics.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: SILVERWATER KID
⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: REVEILLON
💰 ROUGHIE: STORMY WOO (Likely >$10, gets the softest run from the rail).
🚫 AVOID/LAY: PRAIRIE LEGEND (Under $10, winless in 24).
🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Silverwater Kid, Reveillon, Stormy Woo, Prairie Legend.

RACE 2: MONARCH HOTEL/MOTEL MORUYA CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1650m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average.

Leaders: Delago Serg (7).
On Pace: Ol’ Mate Coop (8), Splendid Magnus (2).
Midfield: Memphis Tennessee (6), Gunfighter Road (3).
Backmarkers: Crudo (1), Anladio (4), Endless Applause (5).

Bias Analysis: Delago Serg should control the tempo. Splendid Magnus gets the box seat from barrier 2.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

DELAGO SERG (7)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Paul Facoory — Average
Jockey: Damon Budler — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 41 | Time Rating: 92
10-Factor Score: 9/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Top Race Rating (100). Maps to lead. High Jockey/Trainer strike rate.
❌ Cons: Only 1 win from 13 starts.
Verdict: The designated leader. If he breathes, he wins.

SPLENDID MAGNUS (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Natalie Jarvis — Good
Jockey: Brock Ryan — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 76 | Current Rating: 42 | Time Rating: 93
10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: 2nd highest Time Rating (93). Track specialist trainer. Drawn perfectly (2).
❌ Cons: Stepping up to 1650m for the first time.
Verdict: Consistent and well-placed. The biggest threat to the leader.

MEMPHIS TENNESSEE (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: John Rolfe — Average
Jockey: Ellen Hennessy — Shit House
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 64 | Current Rating: 42 | Time Rating: 87
10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Coming off back-to-back wins. Peak fitness.
❌ Cons: Poor Jockey rating. Stepping up significantly in class.
Verdict: Hard to ignore a horse in winning form, but stats suggest he’s reached his ceiling.

GUNFIGHTER ROAD (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Warren Ganderton — Shit House
Jockey: Jack Martin — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 63 | Current Rating: 0 | Time Rating: N/A
10-Factor Score: 7/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Last start winner. Positive jockey booking.
❌ Cons: Trainer stats are poor.
Verdict: Unproven at the trip but hit the line well last start.

OL’ MATE COOP (8)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Beer & Carpenter — Average
Jockey: Pierre Boudvillain — Elite
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 56 | Current Rating: 23 | Time Rating: 96
10-Factor Score: 8/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Monster Time Rating (96). Elite Jockey.
❌ Cons: Wide barrier (8). Still a maiden.
Verdict: The best “closing” time in the race. If he can get a trail, he flies late.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: DELAGO SERG
⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: SPLENDID MAGNUS
💰 ROUGHIE: OL’ MATE COOP (Over $10, his time ratings are superior to this field).
🚫 AVOID/LAY: ANLADIO (Under $10, beaten 13L last start).
🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Delago Serg, Splendid Magnus, Memphis Tennessee, Ol’ Mate Coop.

RACE 3: HARCOURTS BATEMANS BAY CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1010m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Fast.

Leaders: Zeema (1), Blanc De Noir (4).
On Pace: Dancing Man (6), Winnie Fortune (7).
Midfield: Curly Bend (3), Cuban Rain (5).
Backmarkers: Pewter Pearl (8), Crusader Razor (9).

Bias Analysis: Zeema has the inside rail and is a noted speedster. Blanc De Noir is the quality but will have to work from barrier 4.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

BLANC DE NOIR (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Beer & Carpenter — Average
Jockey: Jack Martin — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 33 | Time Rating: 93
10-Factor Score: 9/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Top Race Rating (100). Won only start at Moruya.
❌ Cons: Resuming (156 days off).
Verdict: Clearly the horse to beat if forward enough.

CUBAN RAIN (5)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Robert & Luke Price — Good
Jockey: Brock Ryan — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 96 | Current Rating: 40 | Time Rating: 93
10-Factor Score: 8/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Equal highest Time Rating (93). Price stable in good form.
❌ Cons: Dropping from 1400m to 1010m is a massive distance shift.
Verdict: Will be doing her best work late. Great each-way value.

CURLY BEND (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Anthony Warren — Good
Jockey: Pierre Boudvillain — Elite
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 88 | Current Rating: 29 | Time Rating: 84
10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Elite Jockey. Gear changes (Blinkers OFF) suggest a reset.
❌ Cons: First-up.
Verdict: Respect the jockey booking on the fresh horse.

WINNIE FORTUNE (7)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Jamie Stewart — Shit House
Jockey: Amy McLucas — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 81 | Current Rating: 36 | Time Rating: 99
10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Huge Time Rating (99). Amy McLucas is a smart booking.
❌ Cons: Poor trainer stats. Wide gate (7).
Verdict: If she repeats her best time, she wins by lengths. The value play.

PEWTER PEARL (8)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Beer & Carpenter — Average
Jockey: Robyn Freeman — Poor
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 79 | Current Rating: 37 | Time Rating: 88
10-Factor Score: 6/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Second-up fitness.
❌ Cons: Wide barrier. Low jockey rating.
Verdict: Place hope only from the wide gate.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: BLANC DE NOIR
⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: WINNIE FORTUNE
💰 ROUGHIE: CURLY BEND (Over $10, Elite jockey factor).
🚫 AVOID/LAY: SOGERI (Under $10, 11yo with zero recent form).
🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Blanc De Noir, Winnie Fortune, Cuban Rain, Curly Bend.

RACE 4: CAMERONS H HARDWARE BENCHMARK 50 HANDICAP (1200m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average.

Leaders: Sure Intentions (4), Zeema (5).
On Pace: Prophet Time (6), More Stylish (2).
Midfield: Baby Daisy (8).
Backmarkers: Big Steve (9), Selhurst Park (10), Karuta King (3), Beograd Boy (1).

Bias Analysis: Prophet Time is ideally positioned to stalk the lead and pounce on the corner.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

PROPHET TIME (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Gratz Vella — Average
Jockey: Teaghan Martin — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 42 | Time Rating: 93
10-Factor Score: 9/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Top Race Rating. Hard fit. Top Jockey.
❌ Cons: Up in distance.
Verdict: The benchmark. Should have too much fitness for these late.

BABY DAISY (8)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Nell Foley — Shit House
Jockey: Pierre Boudvillain — Elite
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 97 | Current Rating: 25 | Time Rating: 82
10-Factor Score: 8/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: 2nd highest Race Rating. Elite Jockey.
❌ Cons: Wide gate. Poor trainer stats.
Verdict: Jockey can win this on his own; horse is in winning form.

SELHURST PARK (10)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Michael Gatty — Shit House
Jockey: Amy McLucas — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 90 | Current Rating: 48 | Time Rating: 91
10-Factor Score: 7/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Course and distance winner.
❌ Cons: Horror draw (10).
Verdict: Loves this track but the gate makes it very tough.

MORE STYLISH (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Lynne Morrison — Average
Jockey: Jack Martin — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 90 | Current Rating: 44 | Time Rating: 93
10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Equal high Time Rating (93). Strong jockey.
❌ Cons: Long layoff (281 days).
Verdict: If the market says “yes,” she’s a major player.

BIG STEVE (9)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Anita Walder — Shit House
Jockey: Robyn Freeman — Poor
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 81 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: 89
10-Factor Score: 5.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Course winner. Drops in grade.
❌ Cons: Wide barrier.
Verdict: Place hope if they overcook the speed.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: PROPHET TIME
⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: BABY DAISY
💰 ROUGHIE: SELHURST PARK (Over $10, track specialist).
🚫 AVOID/LAY: BEOGRAD BOY (Under $10, 0-1 from 6 at distance).
🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Prophet Time, Baby Daisy, More Stylish, Selhurst Park.

RACE 5: BATEMANS BAY SOLDIERS CLUB MAIDEN PLATE (1300m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average.

Leaders: Lindos (5).
On Pace: Millie’s Memory (8), Romantic Tom (6).
Midfield: Mr Usher (9), Secret Romance (1).
Backmarkers: Revoke (4), Suspicious Time (3), Mogo Rock (2), Zoufection (10), La Bella Rosa (7).

Bias Analysis: Lindos looks likely to cross and lead easily. Millie’s Memory is the only one with the speed to challenge her early.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

ROMANTIC TOM (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Darryl Rolfe — Shit House
Jockey: Damon Budler — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 26 | Time Rating: 81
10-Factor Score: 7/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Top Race Rating.
❌ Cons: 0-20 record.
Verdict: Hard to back a horse that doesn’t know how to win.

LINDOS (5)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Theresa Bateup — Average
Jockey: Amy McLucas — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 99 | Current Rating: 26 | Time Rating: 86
10-Factor Score: 9/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Maps to lead. 2nd highest Race Rating.
❌ Cons: Maiden.
Verdict: The stand-out pick. Should lead and win.

MILLIE’S MEMORY (8)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Matthew Dale — Good
Jockey: Pierre Boudvillain — Elite
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 94 | Current Rating: 26 | Time Rating: 82
10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Best Trainer/Jockey combo.
❌ Cons: Wide barrier (8).
Verdict: The class runner. The main danger to Lindos.

SECRET ROMANCE (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Matthew Wood — Shit House
Jockey: Adrian Layt — Shit House
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 81 | Current Rating: 27 | Time Rating: 81
10-Factor Score: 6/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Drawn 1.
❌ Cons: Human ratings.
Verdict: Place chance from the gate.

REVOKE (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Michael Gatty — Shit House
Jockey: Deep Shanker — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 78 | Current Rating: 19 | Time Rating: 91
10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Highest Time Rating (91).
❌ Cons: Trainer stats.
Verdict: Massive respect for the time rating. A must for exotics.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: LINDOS
⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: MILLIE’S MEMORY
💰 ROUGHIE: REVOKE (Over $10, top time ratings).
🚫 AVOID/LAY: SUSPICIOUS TIME (Under $10, 0-46 record).
🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Lindos, Millie’s Memory, Revoke, Romantic Tom.

RACE 6: NAROOMA GOLF CLUB BENCHMARK 50 HANDICAP (1425m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average to Fast.

Leaders: Rangatira (7), Nagadec (5).
On Pace: Bound To Fire (2), Go Gazza (10).
Midfield: Darken (9), Ample Time (4), Robran (3).
Backmarkers: Missile Defence (11), Kisses For Jody (1), Vella Icon (8), La Bella Rosa (6).

Bias Analysis: Nagadec and Bound To Fire have the inside lanes. Rangatira will work from the middle.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

BOUND TO FIRE (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Warren Ganderton — Shit House
Jockey: Jack Martin — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 44 | Time Rating: 70
10-Factor Score: 8/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Top Race Rating. Course winner. Drawn 2.
❌ Cons: Poor time rating.
Verdict: Ratings say he wins this. Mapping is perfect.

GO GAZZA (10)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Cindy Pearson — Shit House
Jockey: Amy McLucas — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 98 | Current Rating: 46 | Time Rating: 92
10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Track specialist. High Time Rating.
❌ Cons: Wide barrier (10).
Verdict: Loves Moruya. If he can get across, he’s a huge hope.

KISSES FOR JODY (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Tash Burleigh — Good
Jockey: Teaghan Martin — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 98 | Current Rating: 45 | Time Rating: 82
10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Drawn 1. Strong human ratings.
❌ Cons: Poor Moruya record.
Verdict: Rail draw is a huge advantage for this horse. Expect a peak.

ROBRAN (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Luke Musson — Average
Jockey: Robyn Freeman — Poor
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 83 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: 92
10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Top Time Rating (92).
❌ Cons: Poor Jockey rating.
Verdict: Time ratings suggest he’s significantly better than this grade.

DARKEN (9)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Natalie Jarvis — Good
Jockey: Billy Owen — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 79 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: N/A
10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Course winner. Top stable.
❌ Cons: Wide barrier.
Verdict: Usually peaks at this track. Stable confidence is key.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: BOUND TO FIRE
⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: KISSES FOR JODY
💰 ROUGHIE: ROBRAN (Over $10, best time ratings).
🚫 AVOID/LAY: MISSILE DEFENCE (Under $10, winless in 959 days).
🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Bound To Fire, Kisses For Jody, Robran, Go Gazza.

MEETING SUMMARY & STAKING PLAN

📘 THE $100 PLAY BOOK

Race 1 – Silverwater Kid – Win – $20
Race 2 – Delago Serg – Win – $20
Race 3 – Blanc De Noir – Win – $20
Race 4 – Prophet Time – Win – $15
Race 5 – Lindos – Win – $15
Race 6 – Bound To Fire – Win – $10

🧩 THE QUADDIE STRATEGY ($50 Budget)

Leg 1 (Race 3): Blanc De Noir, Winnie Fortune, Cuban Rain, Curly Bend
Leg 2 (Race 4): Prophet Time, Baby Daisy, More Stylish, Selhurst Park
Leg 3 (Race 5): Lindos, Millie’s Memory, Revoke
Leg 4 (Race 6): Bound To Fire, Kisses For Jody, Robran, Go Gazza
Flexi Percentage: 26% for $50.

FINAL NOTE: Prices and ratings correct at time of analysis. Please bet within your means. Human ratings are statistical derivations from provided data.