TUNCURRY 04/04/2026 Racing Analysis Report -

🏁 TRACK BIAS & ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT

Track Condition: Likely Good/Soft (pending weather)

Rail Position: True

Historical Bias: Tuncurry is a tight, circular track with a relatively short home straight. Historically, the “Physics of Position” favors those who can find the fence or sit within the first 4-5 lengths of the lead. In 1000m-1200m sprints, the inside 3 barriers see a significant statistical advantage. For 1500m+ events, horses often struggle to make ground from the tail unless the tempo is extreme.

Expected Play: Suited to On-Pace/Leaders. We have adjusted the “10-Factor Scores” higher for horses mapped to lead or sit in the “box seat” (behind the leader).

RACE 1: PSP PAINT MAIDEN HANDICAP (1205m)

🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average

The Map:

Leaders: Speedy Pete (9), Billybago (2)
On Pace: Colorado Tycoon (8), The Big Ticket (3), Rizu (1)
Midfield: Keinbah’s Gift (7), Markwell Melody (6), Double Or Quits (4)
Backmarkers: Rebellious Dream (10), Dancingontherosso (5)
Bias Analysis: Speedy Pete and Billybago are best suited by the track’s historical preference for front-runners over this trip. Rizu gets the map upgrade from barrier 1.

🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

DOUBLE OR QUITS (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Nick Mitchell — Average
Jockey: Emily Farr — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 20 | Time Rating: 81
10-Factor Score: 8/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Holds the highest Race Rating (100). Class drop from recent provincial-level effort.
❌ Cons: 0/11 strike rate; hasn’t broken through in significant attempts.
Verdict: The clear ratings leader who just needs to find her best form to win this weak maiden.

BILLYBAGO (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Colt Prosser — Good
Jockey: Stephen Cummins — Shit House
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 90 | Current Rating: 24 | Time Rating: 84
10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Perfectly drawn in barrier 2 to lead or trail. Second-best race rating in the field.
❌ Cons: Jockey strike rate is a major concern.
Verdict: Massive map advantage; if the jockey handles the turn, he is the main threat.

KEINBAH’S GIFT (7)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Damien Smith — Average
Jockey: Peter Graham — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 78 | Current Rating: 24 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
10-Factor Score: 7/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Strong runner-up finish at this track/trip two starts back. Peter Graham is an upgrade.
❌ Cons: Missing time rating data suggests inconsistency.
Verdict: Proven at the track which is worth a 2-point premium in this grade.

MARKWELL MELODY (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Joseph Burges — Average
Jockey: Grady Spokes — Poor
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 74 | Current Rating: 21 | Time Rating: 84
10-Factor Score: 6/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Solid 4th last start at Port Macquarie indicates fitness is peaking.
❌ Cons: Wide-ish draw and poor jockey stats.
Verdict: Place chance if she can get across and find a trail.

RIZU (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Rocky Simonetta — Shit House
Jockey: Madeline Owen — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 72 | Current Rating: 21 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
10-Factor Score: 5.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Barrier 1 is gold at Tuncurry.
❌ Cons: Low trainer strike rate and long-term maiden status.
Verdict: Pure map play; will stay close to the fence and try to sneak a place.

💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: Double Or Quits

⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: Billybago

💰 ROUGHIE: Markwell Melody

🚫 AVOID/LAY: Colorado Tycoon (Low rating and wide draw)

🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Double Or Quits, Billybago, Keinbah’s Gift, Markwell Melody

RACE 2: MACQUARIE SIGNS MAIDEN PLATE (1505m)

🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average to Slow

The Map:

Leaders: Our Pappy (3), Our Bully (4)
On Pace: Easy Trapezee (9), La Bella Rosa (2)
Midfield: Pear Bellini (1), Aelfwynn (7), Siccius (10)
Backmarkers: Lake Of Fire (5), It’s Not Over (8), It’s Ok (6)
Bias Analysis: In a slow tempo, the leaders Our Pappy and Our Bully will be very hard to catch on the short straight. Pear Bellini must stay in touch from the inside gate.

🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

PEAR BELLINI (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Glen Milligan — Good
Jockey: Matthew Bennett — Poor
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 23 | Time Rating: 92
10-Factor Score: 9/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Elite Race and Time ratings. Very consistent with 7 placings.
❌ Cons: Barrier 1 could be a pocket if the tempo is too slow.
Verdict: The class runner. Should simply be winning this if she finds clear air.

AELFWYNN (8)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Nikki Hodgson — Average
Jockey: Grady Spokes — Poor
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 88 | Current Rating: 35 | Time Rating: 84
10-Factor Score: 8/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Significant gear change with blinkers on first time. Highest Current Rating (35).
❌ Cons: Needs to handle the step up to 1505m.
Verdict: The primary danger; the gear change suggests a sharp improvement in focus.

OUR BULLY (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Mark Howard — Shit House
Jockey: Peter Graham — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 73 | Current Rating: 22 | Time Rating: Data Not Found
10-Factor Score: 7/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Natural leader who gets Peter Graham to control the tempo. Visors on.
❌ Cons: Last start was poor; trainer stats are minimal.
Verdict: Will lead for a long way; suited by the track/bias.

LAKE OF FIRE (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Rocky Simonetta — Shit House
Jockey: Jon Grisedale — Shit House
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 62 | Current Rating: 26 | Time Rating: 94
10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Boasts the highest Time Rating (94) in the race.
❌ Cons: Human factors (Trainer/Jockey) are bottom-tier.
Verdict: Statistical “Time” runner; if she can repeat her best clocking, she is way over the odds.

LA BELLA ROSA (10)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Fabio Martino — Average
Jockey: Stephen Cummins — Shit House
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 57 | Current Rating: 20 | Time Rating: 76
10-Factor Score: 5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Low draw in 2.
❌ Cons: Very poor time ratings; jockey/trainer combo is weak.
Verdict: Place chance only.

💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: Pear Bellini

⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: Aelfwynn

💰 ROUGHIE: Lake Of Fire (Top Time Rating)

🚫 AVOID/LAY: Our Pappy (Elite trainer but “Shit House” jockey and poor ratings)

🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Pear Bellini, Aelfwynn, Our Bully, Lake Of Fire

RACE 3: SETTLERS INN HOTEL BENCHMARK 50 HANDICAP (1505m)

🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average

The Map:

Leaders: Battledance (5), Rivoli Star (6)
On Pace: Calamity Fox (7), Buffett (3)
Midfield: Steel Rain (8), Winters Ending (4), Golden Breeze (2)
Backmarkers: Hemsted (1), Mr Square Pants (9)
Bias Analysis: Battledance is the designated leader and will attempt to run them into the ground.

🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

HEMSTED (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Julia Presits — Shit House
Jockey: Liberty Smyth — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 44 | Time Rating: 86
10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Max Race Rating (100). Loves this track (2 wins). Drops in class.
❌ Cons: 10yo veteran; trainer stats are poor.
Verdict: A course specialist who should thrive back at his favorite stomping ground.

RIVOLI STAR (7)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Peter Graham — Shit House
Jockey: Peter Graham — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 92 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: 87
10-Factor Score: 8/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Fitter for recent runs. Peter Graham riding his own.
❌ Cons: Low trainer strike rate.
Verdict: Strong recent form suggests he is peaking for this BM50.

CALAMITY FOX (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Colt Prosser — Good
Jockey: Grady Spokes — Poor
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 90 | Current Rating: 46 | Time Rating: 93
10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Highest Time Rating (93) and highest Current Rating (46).
❌ Cons: Recent form is patchy (finished double-digit margins away).
Verdict: If he returns to his time-rating form, he is the best horse in the race.

BATTLEDANCE (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Julie Lynch — Average
Jockey: Emily Farr — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 88 | Current Rating: 44 | Time Rating: 87
10-Factor Score: 7/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Maps to lead. Hard fit.
❌ Cons: Carrying 62.5kg is a massive weight for a small-framed horse.
Verdict: Will lead them into the straight; the weight is the only query.

STEEL RAIN (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Donna Grisedale — Good
Jockey: Jon Grisedale — Shit House
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 71 | Current Rating: 46 | Time Rating: 85
10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Change to winkers first time. Placed at track.
❌ Cons: Poor jockey stats.
Verdict: Exotic filler.

💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: Rivoli Star

⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: Hemsted

💰 ROUGHIE: Calamity Fox

🚫 AVOID/LAY: Winters Ending (Poor ratings)

🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Rivoli Star, Hemsted, Calamity Fox, Battledance

RACE 4: ROBBIE AGNEW RACING BENCHMARK 50 HANDICAP (1605m)

🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average

The Map:

Leaders: Firealarm (6), Scaligeri (4)
On Pace: Externus (9), Tawfiq Tom (5)
Midfield: Piedi Veloci (3), Bold Splendor (2), My Diamond Boy (1)
Backmarkers: Flycatcher (7), Class Revolution (12), Steel Rain (10), Quirky Princess (11), Vega Sicilia (8)
Bias Analysis: Finding the rail before the first turn is vital. My Diamond Boy gets the dream run from barrier 1.

🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

MY DIAMOND BOY (9)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Julia Presits — Shit House
Jockey: Liberty Smyth — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 42 | Time Rating: 90
10-Factor Score: 9/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Max Race Rating (100). Map upgrade (Barrier 1).
❌ Cons: Hasn’t won in over 2 years.
Verdict: The ratings and the map suggest today is the day he breaks the drought.

FIREALARM (8)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Damien Smith — Average
Jockey: Hollie Hull — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 95 | Current Rating: 45 | Time Rating: 90
10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Consistent placegetter. Good jockey/trainer stats.
❌ Cons: 0/6 at the distance.
Verdict: Should lead or sit second; will be very hard to pass.

BOLD SPLENDOR (7)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Damien Lane — Average
Jockey: Peter Graham — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 92 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: 91
10-Factor Score: 8/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Strong record at 1600m. Soft draw in 2.
❌ Cons: Freshened (55 days since run).
Verdict: The mile specialist in the field; looks the safest each-way bet.

EXTERNUS (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Nikki Hodgson — Average
Jockey: Grady Spokes — Poor
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 85 | Current Rating: 46 | Time Rating: 92
10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Dropping back from a strong 2100m performance. Top time rating.
❌ Cons: Huge distance drop is a significant variable.
Verdict: High talent but the 500m distance drop is a major “10-Factor” risk.

PIEDI VELOCI (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Donna Grisedale — Good
Jockey: Jon Grisedale — Shit House
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 76 | Current Rating: 47 | Time Rating: 92
10-Factor Score: 7/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Highest Current Rating (47). Fought on well last start.
❌ Cons: Jockey stats.
Verdict: A definite threat if the speed is slow.

💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: My Diamond Boy

⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: Firealarm

💰 ROUGHIE: Piedi Veloci

🚫 AVOID/LAY: Flycatcher (Race Rating of -254)

🔮 EXOTIC: Box: My Diamond Boy, Firealarm, Bold Splendor, Externus

RACE 5: CASCADE POOL & SPA CENTRE BENCHMARK 50 HANDICAP (1005m)

🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Fast

The Map:

Leaders: Where’s The Fire (1), Amoruso (9), La Pelago (11)
On Pace: Maxikolo (2), Skates On (4), Discreet Lady (5)
Midfield: West Germany (3), Risk Assessment (8), Golden Galaxy (7)
Backmarkers: Jevington Will Do (6), Pride Of Lanka (10)
Bias Analysis: Over 1005m, the fence is the only place to be. Where’s The Fire is the primary beneficiary of the rail bias.

🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

WHERE’S THE FIRE (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Tony Ball — Average
Jockey: Hollie Hull — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 47 | Time Rating: 91
10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Maximum Race Rating. Drops in class from BM66. Barrier 1.
❌ Cons: Long dry spell since last win.
Verdict: Statistically the best “Financial Engineering” bet on the card. Huge drop in grade.

DISCREET LADY (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Tom Higgins — Shit House
Jockey: Grace Palmer — Good
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 86 | Current Rating: 47 | Time Rating: 94
10-Factor Score: 9/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Fastest Time Rating (94). Strong 2nd last start.
❌ Cons: Trainer strike rate.
Verdict: The only horse capable of matching the favorite’s speed late.

RISK ASSESSMENT (9)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Aiden St Vincent — Good
Jockey: Peter Graham — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 75 | Current Rating: 44 | Time Rating: 88
10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Good trainer form. Peter Graham to navigate.
❌ Cons: Wide draw (8).
Verdict: Solid exotic player.

JEVINGTON WILL DO (11)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Hilary Dew — Shit House
Jockey: Madeline Owen — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 72 | Current Rating: 42 | Time Rating: 85
10-Factor Score: 7/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Better last start.
❌ Cons: 9yo veteran.
Verdict: Rough place chance.

LA PELAGO (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Damien Lane — Average
Jockey: Liberty Smyth — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 70 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: 90
10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Consistent ratings.
❌ Cons: Impossible draw in 11.
Verdict: Too hard from the gate.

💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: Where’s The Fire

⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: Discreet Lady

💰 ROUGHIE: Skates On

🚫 AVOID/LAY: West Germany (460 days off)

🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Where’s The Fire, Discreet Lady, Risk Assessment, Skates On

RACE 6: BREAKERS EASTER CUP BENCHMARK 50 HANDICAP (1205m)

🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Fast

The Map:

Leaders: Old Timing Man (17), Toy Story (5), All Too Rosey (13)
On Pace: Bondi Prophet (8), Moden (16), Prince Rupert (15)
Midfield: King Soleil (6), Wilderness Star (7), Ofcourseiam (1)
Backmarkers: Shelley’s Lookout (11), Look At Mego (2)
Bias Analysis: Extreme speed predicted. Horses mapped to sit midfield/back like Cool Az Aletta will be suited if the leaders “cook” themselves early.

🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

COOL AZ ALETTA (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Tony Ball — Average
Jockey: Madeline Owen — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 48 | Time Rating: 91
10-Factor Score: 9/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Max Race Rating (100). Won at track/trip only time she visited.
❌ Cons: Barrier 14 is a nightmare.
Verdict: If she gets any luck from the gate, she is the best horse in the race.

TOY STORY (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Tony Ball — Average
Jockey: Emily Farr — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 97 | Current Rating: 44 | Time Rating: 91
10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Maps to lead. Better drawn than the favorite.
❌ Cons: 2/29 win rate; finds it hard to win.
Verdict: The percentage play from the good gate.

SHELLEY’S LOOKOUT (10)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: John A Sprague — Average
Jockey: Peter Graham — Average
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 90 | Current Rating: 40 | Time Rating: 87
10-Factor Score: 8/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Massive first-up run (2nd). Peter Graham handles her well.
❌ Cons: Barrier 11.
Verdict: Will be flying home late; suited by the predicted fast tempo.

ALL TOO ROSEY (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Tony Ball — Average
Jockey: Matthew Bennett — Poor
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 83 | Current Rating: 44 | Time Rating: 88
10-Factor Score: 7/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Drop in grade.
❌ Cons: Out of form.
Verdict: Needs to improve sharply.

KING SOLEIL (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

Trainer: Craig Ruttley — Shit House
Jockey: Grady Spokes — Poor
📊 Data Profile:
Race Rating: 81 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: 76
10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
📝 The Report:
✅ Pros: Good draw.
❌ Cons: Human stats.
Verdict: Place only.

💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

🏆 BEST BET: Cool Az Aletta

⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: Toy Story

💰 ROUGHIE: Wilderness Star (Current Rating 49 – Top in race)

🚫 AVOID/LAY: Old Timing Man (Barrier 17)

🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Cool Az Aletta, Toy Story, Shelley’s Lookout, Wilderness Star

MEETING SUMMARY & STAKING PLAN

📘 THE $100 PLAY BOOK

Race 2 – Pear Bellini – WIN – $20
Race 3 – Rivoli Star – WIN – $15
Race 4 – My Diamond Boy – WIN – $15
Race 5 – Where’s The Fire – WIN – $30
Race 6 – Cool Az Aletta – WIN – $20

🧩 THE QUADDIE STRATEGY ($50 Budget)

Leg 1 (R3): Rivoli Star, Hemsted, Calamity Fox

Leg 2 (R4): My Diamond Boy, Firealarm, Bold Splendor

Leg 3 (R5): Where’s The Fire, Discreet Lady

Leg 4 (R6): Cool Az Aletta, Toy Story, Shelley’s Lookout

Calculation: 3 x 3 x 2 x 3 = 54 combinations.

Flexi ($50): 92.5% coverage.

FINAL NOTE: Prices and ratings correct at time of analysis. Please bet within your means. Human ratings are statistical derivations from provided data.