Rosehill Gardens – 14/03/2026 Racing Analysis Report

RACE 1: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200m)

  1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP
    • Average Settling (Last 3 Starts at 1200m): African Daisy (1.2), Flightcrew (2.1), Debello (2.5), Jambalaya (3.4).
    • Likely Map Position: Lead / On Pace
    • Tempo Prediction: Fast
    • The Map:
      • Leaders: African Daisy (4), Flightcrew (11), Debello (9).
      • On Pace: Don’t Doubt Merlin (17), Oryx (2), Jambalaya (1).
      • Midfield: Broadway Bouncer (5), Agita (16), Zaragoza (8).
      • Backmarkers: Everyone’s A Star (14), Equilibrist (13), Audrey’s Lane (7), Apache Breeze (10).
    • Bias Analysis: The fast tempo favors those who can sustain a high-speed gallop within the first two pairs or those peeling off their backs. Flightcrew and Jambalaya are optimally suited.
  2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

FLIGHTCREW (11)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Lee & Cherie Curtis — Good
  • Jockey: Zac Lloyd — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 100
  • Current Rating: 49
  • Time Rating: 93
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Highest Race Rating in the field; Elite Jockey booking; maps to sit in the primary speed zone.
  • Cons: Wide barrier (11) requires early effort; hasn’t won for 12 months.
  • Verdict: The class benchmark and clearly the horse to beat if she crosses cleanly.

ZARAGOZA (8)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Robert & Luke Price — Good
  • Jockey: Tommy Berry — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 86
  • Current Rating: 48
  • Time Rating: 94
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Jockey; high Time Rating (94); drops significantly in grade from BM78.
  • Cons: Often slow away; map suggests he’ll be searching for gaps in the straight.
  • Verdict: The primary threat who will be flashing late if the speed is as fast as predicted.

AFRICAN DAISY (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Jason Deamer — Shit House
  • Jockey: Braith Nock — Good
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 79
  • Current Rating: 53
  • Time Rating: 91
  • 10-Factor Score: 7/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Maps to lead or sit outside lead; course and distance specialist.
  • Cons: Trainer form is statistically very poor (Shit House); resuming from 157-day layoff.
  • Verdict: Quality mare but human variables and fitness create significant risk.

BROADWAY BOUNCER (5)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Kristen Buchanan — Good
  • Jockey: Dylan Gibbons — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 78
  • Current Rating: 51
  • Time Rating: 92
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Jockey; perfect midfield trail map; extremely consistent in this grade.
  • Cons: Drought breaker—hasn’t won for 440 days.
  • Verdict: The most reliable place/each-way bet in the race for exotic players.

JAMBALAYA (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Richard Litt — Good
  • Jockey: James McDonald — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 77
  • Current Rating: 50
  • Time Rating: 93
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: James McDonald from Barrier 1; strong Time Rating (93); peaking 3rd up.
  • Cons: Jockey form only rated “Average” by meeting stats; potential to be boxed in.
  • Verdict: Maps for the “suck-up” run on the paint; highly dangerous if clear.
  1. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 🏆 BEST BET: #12 FLIGHTCREW
    • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: #14 JAMBALAYA
    • 💰 ROUGHIE: #9 ZARAGOZA (Likely >$10)
    • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: #10 NORTON ROAD (Under $10 / Low ratings)
    • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Flightcrew, Jambalaya, Zaragoza, Broadway Bouncer.

RACE 2: CACTUS IMAGING HANDICAP (1900m)

  1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP
    • Average Settling: Nkosi (1.0), Iceman (2.3), The Western Front (2.8).
    • Likely Map Position: Lead
    • Tempo Prediction: Average
    • The Map:
      • Leaders: Nkosi (1).
      • On Pace: Iceman (5), The Western Front (6).
      • Midfield: Unleeshing (7), Tazima (2), Saint Emilion (4).
      • Backmarkers: Super Helpful (8), O’Sheamus (3).
    • Bias Analysis: The 1900m start at Rosehill into the first bend heavily favors the inside. Nkosi should lead and control.
  2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

NKOSI (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Bjorn Baker — Elite
  • Jockey: Tommy Berry — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 100
  • Current Rating: 52
  • Time Rating: Data Not Found
  • 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Trainer/Jockey combination; maps to lead uncontested; won at trip.
  • Cons: Failed poorly last start (11th); distance query at high tempo.
  • Verdict: Gets every tactical favor today; should lead from barrier to box.

THE WESTERN FRONT (5)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes — Good
  • Jockey: Craig Williams — Good
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 94
  • Current Rating: 55
  • Time Rating: 82
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Arrives from Victoria in winning form; maps on-pace to track the leader.
  • Cons: Low Time Rating (82) compared to Sydney stayers.
  • Verdict: Winning form is good form; Williams is a huge booking for intent.

TAZIMA (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: James McDonald — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 94
  • Current Rating: 53
  • Time Rating: 91
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: J-Mac for Waller; solid distance performer; third-up and ready.
  • Cons: Hasn’t won for 213 days; jockey stats currently “Average”.
  • Verdict: Will start under-odds but the data profile makes him a clear danger.

UNLEESHING (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Bjorn Baker — Elite
  • Jockey: Jason Collett — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 91
  • Current Rating: 49
  • Time Rating: 95
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Highest Time Rating in the field (95); Elite Trainer; drops in grade.
  • Cons: Up 300m in distance quickly; awkward barrier 7.
  • Verdict: The class runner of the race; has the engine to blow these away late.

ICEMAN (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Clarry Conners — Elite
  • Jockey: Nash Rawiller — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 79
  • Current Rating: 46
  • Time Rating: 81
  • 10-Factor Score: 7/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Trainer; Nash Rawiller up; on-pace map suited by slow tempo.
  • Cons: Very low ratings data; significant distance jump.
  • Verdict: Tactical hope only if the leaders stack them up.
  1. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 🏆 BEST BET: #1 NKOSI
    • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: #3 UNLEESHING
    • 💰 ROUGHIE: #7 SAINT EMILION (>$10)
    • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: #2 SUPER HELPFUL (Shit House jockey / Poor map)
    • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Nkosi, Unleeshing, Tazima, Saint Emilion.

RACE 3: TRESEMM MAGIC NIGHT STAKES (1200m)

  1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP
    • Average Settling: By Choice (1.3), Lumbini (1.8), Pembrey (2.2).
    • Likely Map Position: Lead
    • Tempo Prediction: Fast
    • The Map:
      • Leaders: By Choice (4), Lumbini (1).
      • On Pace: Pembrey (10), Lagunanini (8), Hellenic Belle (7).
      • Midfield: Hardanger (9), Affari (6).
      • Backmarkers: Wave Blaster (2), Zoo Dazzler (12), Arrest Warrant (5).
    • Bias Analysis: Waterhouse/Bott dominant. By Choice is professional and maps to dominate the rail.
  2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

BY CHOICE (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott — Elite
  • Jockey: Tim Clark — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 100
  • Current Rating: 36
  • Time Rating: 94
  • 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Top Race Rating; Elite Trainer/Jockey combo; maps to lead or sit OSP.
  • Cons: Will be at prohibitive odds; hard to find a data fault.
  • Verdict: The benchmark 2YO filly in this field.

LUMBINI (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott — Elite
  • Jockey: Adam Hyeronimus — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 79
  • Current Rating: 49
  • Time Rating: 94
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Trainer; high Time Rating (94); rail draw allows ground-saving.
  • Cons: Average jockey; coming off a moderate 7th last start.
  • Verdict: Stablemate who can improve sharply if allowed to stalk the lead.

HARDANGER (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Michael Freedman — Good
  • Jockey: Tommy Berry — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 71
  • Current Rating: 36
  • Time Rating: 91
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Jockey; extremely consistent (3 starts, 3 placings); strong sectionals.
  • Cons: Still a maiden; needs to improve Time Rating to win this grade.
  • Verdict: Always in the finish; will be the one charging home late.

LAGUNANINI (5)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young — Elite
  • Jockey: Nash Rawiller — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 68
  • Current Rating: 0
  • Time Rating: Data Not Found
  • 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Unbeaten (1/1); Elite Trainer; Nash Rawiller booked.
  • Cons: Massive jump from Sale Maiden to G3; unknown ceiling.
  • Verdict: The X-factor Victorian; if she translates her speed, she is a player.

PEMBREY (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Tony Gollan — Good
  • Jockey: James McDonald — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 59
  • Current Rating: 36
  • Time Rating: Data Not Found
  • 10-Factor Score: 7/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: J-Mac booked; winner on debut; speed to sit on-pace.
  • Cons: Barrier 10; average jockey rating relative to elite peers.
  • Verdict: Market watch; the McDonald booking is a clear signal of intent.
  1. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 🏆 BEST BET: #1 BY CHOICE
    • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: #4 HARDANGER
    • 💰 ROUGHIE: #11 CIARON’S STAR (>$10)
    • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: #6 WAVE BLASTER (Shit House jockey / Low ratings)
    • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: By Choice, Lumbini, Hardanger, Pembrey.

RACE 4: TAB PAGO PAGO STAKES (1200m)

  1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP
    • Average Settling: Star Of Jamaica (1.2), Outspan (2.1), Forest King (2.4).
    • Likely Map Position: On Pace
    • Tempo Prediction: Fast
    • The Map:
      • Leaders: Star Of Jamaica (9), Drumfire (12), Outspan (3).
      • On Pace: Forest King (2), Plagiarism (6), Warwoven (10).
      • Midfield: Central Europe (8), Euripedes (5).
      • Backmarkers: Persian Wonder (11), Concrete Storm (4), Amazone (1).
    • Bias Analysis: High pressure up front ensured. Outspan and Forest King map perfectly to sit in the 1×1 or 2×2 trail.
  2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

OUTSPAN (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Michael Freedman — Good
  • Jockey: Sam Clipperton — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 100
  • Current Rating: 30
  • Time Rating: 95
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Top Race Rating; Elite Jockey; maps to sit right behind speed; won at track.
  • Cons: Failed last start in higher grade; 28 days between runs.
  • Verdict: Best ratings/map convergence in the race; hard to ignore.

FOREST KING (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton — Elite
  • Jockey: Dylan Gibbons — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 96
  • Current Rating: 0
  • Time Rating: Data Not Found
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Double Elite human ratings; dominant debut winner; perfect barrier 2.
  • Cons: Significant jump in grade; unraced at Rosehill.
  • Verdict: Extremely talented; debut win suggested he is G3 quality.

WARWOVEN (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Bjorn Baker — Elite
  • Jockey: Rachel King — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 90
  • Current Rating: 39
  • Time Rating: 98
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Highest Time Rating (98); Elite Trainer; has G1 experience.
  • Cons: Barrier 10 is tricky; average jockey rating.
  • Verdict: The class runner. If Rachel King can find a slot, he wins.

STAR OF JAMAICA (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris & Corey Munce — Average
  • Jockey: Nash Rawiller — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 78
  • Current Rating: 36
  • Time Rating: 95
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Nash Rawiller stays on; high Time Rating; very fast early.
  • Cons: Average human ratings; needs to cross from barrier 9.
  • Verdict: Will lead and give a massive sight at odds.

CENTRAL EUROPE (5)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: James McDonald — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 68
  • Current Rating: 0
  • Time Rating: Data Not Found
  • 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: J-Mac/Waller combination; impressive debut 2nd; high upside.
  • Cons: Still a maiden; maps awkwardly from barrier 8.
  • Verdict: Likely over-bet but the sectional data from debut was elite.
  1. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 🏆 BEST BET: #4 OUTSPAN
    • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: #6 FOREST KING
    • 💰 ROUGHIE: #1 STAR OF JAMAICA (>$10)
    • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: #10 DRUMFIRE (Unproven in this grade)
    • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Outspan, Forest King, Warwoven, Star Of Jamaica.

RACE 5: ASAHI SUPER DRY SKY HIGH STAKES (2000m)

  1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP
    • Average Settling: Just Fine (1.0), Vauban (2.1), Wootton Verni (2.3).
    • Likely Map Position: Lead / On Pace
    • Tempo Prediction: Average
    • The Map:
      • Leaders: Just Fine (5).
      • On Pace: Vauban (9), Wootton Verni (7), Birdman (8).
      • Midfield: Trinity College (1), Zarir (4), Soul Of Spain (3).
      • Backmarkers: Valiant King (6), River Of Stars (2).
    • Bias Analysis: Average tempo likely. Vauban and Just Fine control the front and will be very hard to catch if they stack them up.
  2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

VAUBAN (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott — Elite
  • Jockey: Tim Clark — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 100
  • Current Rating: 66
  • Time Rating: 93
  • 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: International Group class; Elite Trainer/Jockey; top Race/Current ratings.
  • Cons: Resuming after 130 days; 2000m is short of his ultimate best.
  • Verdict: The class horse of the meeting. If he’s forward enough, he wins.

JUST FINE (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott — Elite
  • Jockey: Regan Bayliss — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 75
  • Current Rating: 63
  • Time Rating: 85
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Maps to lead; Elite Trainer/Jockey; won Metropolitan at this track.
  • Cons: Low Time Rating (85); 525 days since last win.
  • Verdict: Will dictate the tempo; huge chance to lead all the way.

VALIANT KING (7)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: Zac Lloyd — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 75
  • Current Rating: 66
  • Time Rating: 89
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Highest Current Rating; Elite Jockey; major improver second-up.
  • Cons: Trainer form currently “Good” but not elite; 13th last start.
  • Verdict: Massively suited by the step up to 2000m; the main danger.

SOUL OF SPAIN (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: Tommy Berry — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 73
  • Current Rating: 60
  • Time Rating: Data Not Found
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Jockey; consistent profile; closing strongly in G1 last start.
  • Cons: Backmarker in a race with slow tempo; map is against him.
  • Verdict: Needs a genuine pace to show his best finish.

BIRDMAN (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: Nash Rawiller — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 70
  • Current Rating: 63
  • Time Rating: 93
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Last start winner; high Time Rating (93); Nash Rawiller on.
  • Cons: Average jockey rating; faces much tougher grade today.
  • Verdict: In-form horse that can measure up to the international stayers.
  1. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 🏆 BEST BET: #1 VAUBAN
    • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: #7 VALIANT KING
    • 💰 ROUGHIE: #3 JUST FINE (>$10)
    • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: #9 RIVER OF STARS (Low ratings)
    • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Vauban, Just Fine, Valiant King, Birdman.

RACE 6: CHANDON HANDICAP (1200m)

  1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP
    • Average Settling: Kerguelen (1.1), Mal Coupe (1.4), Tonkin (2.1).
    • Likely Map Position: Lead / On Pace
    • Tempo Prediction: Fast
    • The Map:
      • Leaders: Kerguelen (11), Mal Coupe (9), Tonkin (7).
      • On Pace: Enriched (5), Shezanalister (1), La Fracas (4).
      • Midfield: King’s Secret (2), Don’t Hope Do (6).
      • Backmarkers: Flying For Fun (3), Dollar Magic (8), Countyourblessings (10).
    • Bias Analysis: Extremely fast pace suits Flying For Fun and Dollar Magic to descend late.
  2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

MAL COUPE (8)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Stephen O’Halloran — Shit House
  • Jockey: Winona Costin — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 100
  • Current Rating: 52
  • Time Rating: 88
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Highest Race Rating; Elite Jockey; massive winner last start Randwick.
  • Cons: Trainer form is “Shit House”; up in distance and weight.
  • Verdict: Numerical standout but human factors are a significant concern.

ENRICHED (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Michael Freedman — Good
  • Jockey: Tommy Berry — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 95
  • Current Rating: 52
  • Time Rating: 88
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: High Race Rating; Elite Jockey; maps to sit right behind lead.
  • Cons: 336 days since win; failed last start (7th).
  • Verdict: Ideally drawn to peak today after two runs back.

FLYING FOR FUN (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Bryce Heys — Good
  • Jockey: Zac Lloyd — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 90
  • Current Rating: 56
  • Time Rating: 100
  • 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Perfect Time Rating (100); Elite Jockey; proven fresh performer.
  • Cons: 105 days since last run; backmarker from barrier 1.
  • Verdict: The “Time” horse; if they go as hard as predicted, he wins.

TONKIN (9)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman — Elite
  • Jockey: Tim Clark — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 92
  • Current Rating: 58
  • Time Rating: 96
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Double Elite human ratings; high Time Rating; maps for lead.
  • Cons: Up in grade; awkward barrier 7.
  • Verdict: Massive winning chance for the sharp Victorian yard.

KERGUELEN (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Joseph Pride — Good
  • Jockey: Adam Hyeronimus — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 82
  • Current Rating: 59
  • Time Rating: 98
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: High Time Rating (98); dominant winner last start; top Current Rating.
  • Cons: Barrier 11 is tough; average jockey form.
  • Verdict: If he clears the field early, he is the fastest horse here.
  1. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 🏆 BEST BET: #3 FLYING FOR FUN
    • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: #9 TONKIN
    • 💰 ROUGHIE: #1 ENRICHED (>$10)
    • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: #8 MAL COUPE (Shit House trainer)
    • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Flying For Fun, Tonkin, Enriched, Kerguelen.

RACE 7: CHANDON PHAR LAP STAKES (1500m)

  1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP
    • Average Settling: Shangri La Boy (1.3), Matias (1.8), Cellarmaster (2.5).
    • Likely Map Position: On Pace
    • Tempo Prediction: Average / Slow
    • The Map:
      • Leaders: Shangri La Boy (6), Matias (8).
      • On Pace: Cellarmaster (10), Top Reward (5).
      • Midfield: Sixties (11), West Of Swindon (3), Kilbrannan (1).
      • Backmarkers: Tom Vegas (9), Panova (4), Federalist (7).
    • Bias Analysis: Moderate pace favors Matias and Shangri La Boy controlling from the front.
  2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

CELLARMASTER (5)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton — Elite
  • Jockey: Zac Lloyd — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 100
  • Current Rating: 49
  • Time Rating: 94
  • 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Top Race Rating; Double Elite human ratings; won last start dominant.
  • Cons: Barrier 10 is tricky at the 1500m start point.
  • Verdict: Peak fitness and ratings convergence; the clear horse to beat.

MATIAS (4)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou — Elite
  • Jockey: Jay Ford — Good
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 86
  • Current Rating: 38
  • Time Rating: 96
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Trainer; high Time Rating; maps to lead/OSP; trialling great.
  • Cons: 84 days since run; first time at 1500m.
  • Verdict: Massive threat if he handles the step up in trip fresh.

TOP REWARD (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Clayton Douglas — Elite
  • Jockey: Craig Williams — Good
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 82
  • Current Rating: 0
  • Time Rating: Data Not Found
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Trainer; Craig Williams on; high-class Victorian raider.
  • Cons: Missing ratings data; needs to show Sydney form.
  • Verdict: Market watch; the Douglas yard is very sharp with traveling horses.

SIXTIES (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: James McDonald — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 81
  • Current Rating: 47
  • Time Rating: Data Not Found
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Class horse (G2 winner); J-Mac for Waller; consistent.
  • Cons: Barrier 11 is the graveyard start at Rosehill 1500m.
  • Verdict: Will start under-odds but possesses the base ability to win.

TOM VEGAS (9)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Dean Mirfin — Shit House
  • Jockey: Mathew Cahill — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 72
  • Current Rating: 48
  • Time Rating: 100
  • 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Perfect Time Rating (100); best finish in the field.
  • Cons: Trainer form is “Shit House”; backmarker from barrier 9.
  • Verdict: The knockout horse at huge odds if the pace is genuine.
  1. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 🏆 BEST BET: #5 CELLARMASTER
    • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: #4 MATIAS
    • 💰 ROUGHIE: #9 TOM VEGAS (>$10)
    • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: #2 SHANGRI LA BOY (Short price risk)
    • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Cellarmaster, Matias, Top Reward, Sixties.

RACE 8: COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500m)

  1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP
    • Average Settling: Arctic Glamour (1.1), Verona Rose (2.1), Cinsault (2.5).
    • Likely Map Position: Midfield
    • Tempo Prediction: Fast
    • The Map:
      • Leaders: Arctic Glamour (1), Verona Rose (4).
      • On Pace: Cinsault (8), Manaal (2).
      • Midfield: Lazzura (10), Savvy Hallie (7), Firestorm (9).
      • Backmarkers: Vivy Air (11), Ole Dancer (6).
    • Bias Analysis: High pressure up front suits Lazzura and Cinsault to peak late.
  2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

LAZZURA (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: James McDonald — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 100
  • Current Rating: 57
  • Time Rating: 90
  • 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Highest Race Rating; J-Mac/Waller; peaking second-up.
  • Cons: Barrier 10; jockey form only “Average” relative to meeting.
  • Verdict: The class factor in the race; hard to beat in this grade.

ARCTIC GLAMOUR (5)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou — Elite
  • Jockey: Tom Sherry — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 98
  • Current Rating: 60
  • Time Rating: 92
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Trainer; highest Current Rating (60); barrier 1 map.
  • Cons: Average jockey rating; second-up query.
  • Verdict: Ideally drawn to lead or sit in the box seat.

CINSAULT (8)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Michael Freedman — Good
  • Jockey: Tim Clark — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 96
  • Current Rating: 51
  • Time Rating: 96
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Jockey; high Time Rating (96); won last start.
  • Cons: Awkward barrier 8; up in grade to G1.
  • Verdict: Tim Clark on a leader in a G1 is a major danger signal.

MANAAL (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Michael Freedman — Good
  • Jockey: Jason Collett — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 86
  • Current Rating: 54
  • Time Rating: 94
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Consistent G1 form; maps perfectly from barrier 2.
  • Cons: Average jockey; hasn’t won for 168 days.
  • Verdict: Solid each-way hope; will be in the finish.

VIVY AIR (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Ciaron Maher — Good
  • Jockey: Reece Jones — Shit House
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 85
  • Current Rating: 57
  • Time Rating: 93
  • 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: High Current Rating; G1 winner previously.
  • Cons: Jockey form “Shit House”; backmarker from barrier 9.
  • Verdict: Ratings suggest a chance but human factors are poor.
  1. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 🏆 BEST BET: #1 LAZZURA
    • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: #8 CINSAULT
    • 💰 ROUGHIE: #5 ARCTIC GLAMOUR (>$10)
    • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: #4 VERONA ROSE (Over-backed)
    • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Lazzura, Arctic Glamour, Cinsault, Manaal.

RACE 9: HYLAND RACE COLOURS AJAX STAKES (1500m)

  1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP
    • Average Settling: Willaidow (1.2), Globe (1.5), Cristal Clear (2.1).
    • Likely Map Position: Midfield
    • Tempo Prediction: Average
    • The Map:
      • Leaders: Willaidow (4), Globe (11).
      • On Pace: Cristal Clear (8), Lord Penman (6).
      • Midfield: Militarize (1), War Eternal (9), Enxuto (7).
      • Backmarkers: Robusto (5).
    • Bias Analysis: Globe will look to lead. Militarize from barrier 1 needs a gap.
  2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

ROBUSTO (3)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Bjorn Baker — Elite
  • Jockey: Tim Clark — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 100
  • Current Rating: 63
  • Time Rating: 95
  • 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Top Race Rating; Double Elite human ratings; high Time Rating.
  • Cons: 63 days since last win; backmarker settling.
  • Verdict: Numerical standout; ideally suited by the 1500m at Rosehill.

CRISTAL CLEAR (8)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald — Elite
  • Jockey: Braith Nock — Good
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 97
  • Current Rating: 53
  • Time Rating: 94
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Trainer; maps to sit right behind lead; won recently.
  • Cons: Up in grade; facing elite veteran stayers.
  • Verdict: The young improver in the race; a massive threat.

GLOBE (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr — Good
  • Jockey: Tommy Berry — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 94
  • Current Rating: 62
  • Time Rating: 90
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Jockey; high Current Rating; trialling great.
  • Cons: Barrier 11; first time at Rosehill turns.
  • Verdict: If he clears the field early, he is very hard to stop.

MILITARIZE (2)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: James McDonald — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 89
  • Current Rating: 69
  • Time Rating: 97
  • 10-Factor Score: 9/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Highest Current Rating (69); Class horse; J-Mac/Waller.
  • Cons: Barrier 1 is a trap; hasn’t won for 903 days.
  • Verdict: The class Lay of the meeting at likely short odds.

LORD PENMAN (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: Zac Lloyd — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 82
  • Current Rating: 56
  • Time Rating: Data Not Found
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Jockey; Waller yard; progressive profile.
  • Cons: Missing ratings data; facing stakes horses for first time.
  • Verdict: Overpriced blowout chance for multiples.
  1. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 🏆 BEST BET: #3 ROBUSTO
    • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: #8 CRISTAL CLEAR
    • 💰 ROUGHIE: #1 GLOBE (>$10)
    • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: #2 MILITARIZE (Short price risk / Poor win SR)
    • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Robusto, Cristal Clear, Globe, Lord Penman.

RACE 10: BENCHMARK 88 HANDICAP (1400m)

  1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP
    • Average Settling: Eye Of The Fire (1.2), Cristal Clear (1.5), Captain Furai (2.2).
    • Likely Map Position: On Pace
    • Tempo Prediction: Fast
    • The Map:
      • Leaders: Eye Of The Fire (7), Cristal Clear (1).
      • On Pace: Captain Furai (11), Althoff (5), Charcoals (12).
      • Midfield: Cavalier Charles (2), Perfumist (11), Glint Of Silver (15).
      • Backmarkers: Bandi’s Boy (5), Geriatrix (13), Gravina (14).
    • Bias Analysis: High pressure ensured. Captain Furai peels off the lead to strike.
  2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

CAPTAIN FURAI (11)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: James McDonald — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 100
  • Current Rating: 53
  • Time Rating: 98
  • 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Top Race/Time Ratings; perfect barrier 3 map; J-Mac/Waller.
  • Cons: Jockey form rated “Average” currently.
  • Verdict: The class horse in the lucky last; hard to beat.

CRISTAL CLEAR (1)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald — Elite
  • Jockey: Braith Nock — Good
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 88
  • Current Rating: 53
  • Time Rating: 94
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Trainer; maps to lead or sit outside lead.
  • Cons: Barrier 16 is a nightmare; 130 days since win.
  • Verdict: Tactical danger if fit enough fresh.

CAVALIER CHARLES (7)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Matthew Dale — Good
  • Jockey: Dylan Gibbons — Elite
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 80
  • Current Rating: 61
  • Time Rating: 90
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Jockey; highest Current Rating; maps to save ground.
  • Cons: 9yo veteran; limited upside.
  • Verdict: The reliable place hope for the exotics.

EYE OF THE FIRE (6)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald — Elite
  • Jockey: Braith Nock — Good
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 74
  • Current Rating: 59
  • Time Rating: 97
  • 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Elite Time Rating; Elite Trainer; lightning fast early.
  • Cons: Barrier 7; facing serious pressure.
  • Verdict: The speed influence of the race.

ALTHOFF (5)

👥 Human Ratings:

  • Trainer: Chris Waller — Good
  • Jockey: Nash Rawiller — Average
    📊 Data Profile:
  • Race Rating: 62
  • Current Rating: 54
  • Time Rating: 93
  • 10-Factor Score: 8/10
    📝 The Report:
  • Pros: Nash Rawiller on; Waller yard; won last start.
  • Cons: Faces toughest grade to date.
  • Verdict: Honest type that will be in the finish.
  1. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 🏆 BEST BET: #11 CAPTAIN FURAI
    • ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: #7 CAVALIER CHARLES
    • 💰 ROUGHIE: #3 BANDI’S BOY (>$10)
    • 🚫 AVOID/LAY: #1 CRISTAL CLEAR (Barrier risk)
    • 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: Captain Furai, Cavalier Charles, Bandi’s Boy, Althoff.

MEETING SUMMARY & STAKING PLAN

📘 THE $100 PLAY BOOK

  • Race 1 – #12 FLIGHTCREW – Win – $15 Stake
  • Race 2 – #1 NKOSI – Win – $20 Stake
  • Race 7 – #5 CELLARMASTER – Win – $25 Stake
  • Race 8 – #1 LAZZURA – Win – $20 Stake
  • Race 10 – #11 CAPTAIN FURAI – Win – $20 Stake

🧩 THE QUADDIE STRATEGY ($50 Budget)

  • Leg 1 (R7): Cellarmaster, Matias, Sixties
  • Leg 2 (R8): Lazzura, Arctic Glamour, Cinsault
  • Leg 3 (R9): Robusto, Cristal Clear, Globe
  • Leg 4 (R10): Captain Furai, Cavalier Charles
  • Flexi: $50 for 54 combinations = 92.5% Flexi

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Track Info

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