Tuncurry Racing Analysis Report – 09/05/2026

🏟️ TRACK BIAS & CONDITIONS REPORT

Track Surface: Soft (Predicted) Rail Position: True / +1.5m sections Historical Profile: Tuncurry is a unique “sand-mesh” base track. Historically, it is a very fair surface, but it heavily rewards horses that can settle in the “one-off” line or find the rails in the first half of the race. Expected Bias: Given the recent moisture, look for the “rail to 3-wide” lanes to be the fastest. Over the sprint trips (1005m), the start is everything; horses drawn low (1-4) have a significant statistical advantage. In the staying events (1605m), horses that can maintain a steady tempo without being trapped wide on the final turn are suited. Bias-Suited Runners: * Race 1: CORPSMAN (Rail draw)

• Race 2: PRINCE RUPERT (Rail draw)
• Race 3: ON ME (Rail draw)
• Race 4: ROCK’N ON UPTOWN (Rail draw)
• Race 6: BONDI PROPHET (Barrier 2)

RACE 1: EVERMORE BENCHMARK 50 HANDICAP (1605m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average The Map:

• Leaders: SHOW US YA TEXTS, GOLD SOMETHING
• On Pace: CALAMITY FOX, WINTERS ENDING
• Midfield: CORPSMAN, KING SOLEIL
• Backmarkers: FLASH PRINCE, MASTER FONTANA Bias Analysis: SHOW US YA TEXTS maps to lead easily from barrier 3. CORPSMAN is the biggest beneficiary of the bias, drawn to save ground on the fence before peeling out late.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

CORPSMAN (Barrier 1)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Jeremy Sylvester — Good | Jockey: Luke Rolls — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 44 | Time Rating: 90 | 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Top rater in the race; drawn to do zero work; drops in class.
  • ❌ Cons: Form has been mixed; needs to find the winning feeling again.
  • Verdict: The statistical class of the race and the best map horse.

CALAMITY FOX (Barrier 4)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Colt Prosser — Good | Jockey: Olivia Dalton — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 88 | Current Rating: 46 | Time Rating: 93 | 10-Factor Score: 8/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Highest time rating in the field; coming off a win.
  • ❌ Cons: Carrying weight; peak of prep.
  • Verdict: The danger. Rock hard fit and running high numbers.

SHOW US YA TEXTS (Barrier 3)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Lyle Chandler — Average | Jockey: Jenny Duggan — Good
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 86 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: N/A | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Maps to lead; major jockey upgrade.
  • ❌ Cons: Still a maiden; pressure at the mile is a query.
  • Verdict: Will give a massive sight from the front.

WINTERS ENDING (Barrier 5)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Nick Mitchell — Average | Jockey: Grady Spokes — Poor
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 85 | Current Rating: 42 | Time Rating: 89 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Consistent performer; handle soft ground.
  • ❌ Cons: Jockey strike rate is low.
  • Verdict: Place chance if the leaders stop.

MASTER FONTANA (Barrier 7)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Terry Wicks — Shit House | Jockey: Serg Lisnyy — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 84 | Current Rating: 40 | Time Rating: 87 | 10-Factor Score: 5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Proven at the distance.
  • ❌ Cons: Trainer form is non-existent.
  • Verdict: Blowout chance for exotics only.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

• 🏆 BEST BET: CORPSMAN
• ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: CALAMITY FOX
• 💰 ROUGHIE: MASTER FONTANA (Currently $21)
• 🚫 AVOID/LAY: KING SOLEIL (Short price, poor data)
• 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: CORPSMAN, CALAMITY FOX, SHOW US YA TEXTS, WINTERS ENDING

RACE 2: TBBC BENCHMARK 50 HANDICAP (1005m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Fast The Map:

• Leaders: BRAZEN BRANDO, MISS DE BLAAS
• On Pace: PRINCE RUPERT, LA PELAGO
• Midfield: SKATES ON, GOLDEN GALAXY
• Backmarkers: JUST ONE LOOK, STIORRA Bias Analysis: Speed is king at the Tuncurry 1005m. PRINCE RUPERT and BRAZEN BRANDO are drawn to dominate the early splits.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

BRAZEN BRANDO (Barrier 8)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Brett Lazzarini — Elite | Jockey: Grady Spokes — Poor
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 47 | Time Rating: 88 | 10-Factor Score: 9/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Course specialist; top rater; Elite trainer.
  • ❌ Cons: Big weight; wide gate.
  • Verdict: Despite the weight, he is the benchmark course performer.

SKATES ON (Barrier 2)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Colt Prosser — Good | Jockey: Luke Rolls — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 91 | Current Rating: 44 | Time Rating: 91 | 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Drawn to trail; high time rating.
  • ❌ Cons: Getting old; limited win range.
  • Verdict: Perfect map horse if they over-cook it up front.

PRINCE RUPERT (Barrier 1)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Robert Agnew — Average | Jockey: Olivia Dalton — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 87 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: 72 | 10-Factor Score: 8/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Won last start; rail draw.
  • ❌ Cons: Low time rating; needs a soft lead.
  • Verdict: In winning form and the rail is the place to be.

MISS DE BLAAS (Barrier 3)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Hilary Dew — Shit House | Jockey: Leanne Boyd — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 83 | Current Rating: 45 | Time Rating: 92 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Elite speed figures; drawn soft.
  • ❌ Cons: Trainer stats are a worry.
  • Verdict: The statistical “overlay” of the race.

JUST ONE LOOK (Barrier 6)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: John Cooper — Shit House | Jockey: Kody Nestor — Poor
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 75 | Current Rating: 46 | Time Rating: 93 | 10-Factor Score: 6/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Fast time figures; loves the course.
  • ❌ Cons: First up; poor jockey rating.
  • Verdict: Threatening if he finds room late.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

• 🏆 BEST BET: BRAZEN BRANDO
• ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: SKATES ON
• 💰 ROUGHIE: MISS DE BLAAS (Currently $13)
• 🚫 AVOID/LAY: LA PELAGO
• 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: BRAZEN BRANDO, SKATES ON, PRINCE RUPERT, MISS DE BLAAS

RACE 3: CLUB FORSTER MAIDEN HANDICAP (1305m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average The Map:

• Leaders: DIABLO DANCER, GAELIC REWARD
• On Pace: STEFFIEWAH, CHECKS’N’BALANCES
• Midfield: ON ME, PERCOLATE
• Backmarkers: ONE FOR HESKO, RELIEVED Bias Analysis: ON ME is the horse suited by the track bias, drawn barrier 1 and likely to find the rails trail behind the leaders.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

ON ME (Barrier 1)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Kelly Barber — Shit House | Jockey: Nick Palmer — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 23 | Time Rating: N/A | 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Clear top rater; gate 1 advantage.
  • ❌ Cons: Trainer form is poor.
  • Verdict: Should be breaking the maiden here from the rail.

DIABLO DANCER (Barrier 2)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Stephen Gleeson — Shit House | Jockey: Serg Lisnyy — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 90 | Current Rating: 27 | Time Rating: 85 | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Drawn to lead or trail; consistent rater.
  • ❌ Cons: Long term maiden.
  • Verdict: Has the tactical speed to offset any track bias.

ONE FOR HESKO (Barrier 8)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Colt Prosser — Good | Jockey: Jenny Duggan — Good
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 79 | Current Rating: 0 | Time Rating: N/A | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Strongest human variables in the race.
  • ❌ Cons: Wide draw; 0 rating.
  • Verdict: Colt Prosser horses are flying; watch the market.

MOONLIGHT ODYSSEY (Barrier 6)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Wayne Wilkes — Average | Jockey: Gabrielle Johnston — Shit House
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 72 | Current Rating: 23 | Time Rating: N/A | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Close second last start.
  • ❌ Cons: Jockey rating is low.
  • Verdict: Local trainer who knows the track well.

RELIEVED (Barrier 9)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Terry Evans — Good | Jockey: Teighan Worsnop — Poor
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 72 | Current Rating: 33 | Time Rating: 86 | 10-Factor Score: 6/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Fast time rating; high fitness levels.
  • ❌ Cons: Wide gate.
  • Verdict: The value runner if they roll along.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

• 🏆 BEST BET: ON ME
• ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: DIABLO DANCER
• 💰 ROUGHIE: RELIEVED (Currently $26)
• 🚫 AVOID/LAY: STEFFIEWAH (Short price, poor map)
• 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: ON ME, DIABLO DANCER, ONE FOR HESKO, MOONLIGHT ODYSSEY

RACE 4: FORSTER BOWLING CLUB MAIDEN PLATE (1605m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Slow The Map:

• Leaders: SHOW US YA TEXTS, MS HUBBLE
• On Pace: THE BIG TICKET, ROCK’N ON UPTOWN
• Midfield: ENVISIONED, PATHELIA
• Backmarkers: DON’T BACK DOWN, FINDING ELLE Bias Analysis: ROCK’N ON UPTOWN has the rail draw (1) and should track the speed beautifully in a slow-run race.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

MS HUBBLE (Barrier 9)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Karen Owen — Average | Jockey: Madeline Owen — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 25 | Time Rating: N/A | 10-Factor Score: 9/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Clear top rater; coming off a career-best 2nd.
  • ❌ Cons: Needs to cross from barrier 9.
  • Verdict: The one to beat if she finds the rail.

SHOW US YA TEXTS (Barrier 15)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Lyle Chandler — Average | Jockey: Jenny Duggan — Good
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 87 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: N/A | 10-Factor Score: 8/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Elite trainer/jockey combo for this track; maps to lead.
  • ❌ Cons: Wide draw is the only query.
  • Verdict: Will likely find the front and control the tempo.

ROCK’N ON UPTOWN (Barrier 1)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Carlos Antonio — Average | Jockey: Jenny Duggan — Good
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 80 | Current Rating: 24 | Time Rating: 84 | 10-Factor Score: 8/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Barrier 1; major jockey upgrade.
  • ❌ Cons: Still a maiden.
  • Verdict: The map horse. Will save every inch of ground.

ENVISIONED (Barrier 4)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Stephen Gleeson — Shit House | Jockey: Serg Lisnyy — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 71 | Current Rating: 18 | Time Rating: 87 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Fast time rating.
  • ❌ Cons: Trainer form is poor.
  • Verdict: Roughie chance if the tempo increases.

PATHELIA (Barrier 7)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: John Bannister — Elite | Jockey: N/A — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 69 | Current Rating: 39 | Time Rating: 74 | 10-Factor Score: 6/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Elite trainer; fit.
  • ❌ Cons: Slow time figures.
  • Verdict: Stayer who will keep whacking away.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

• 🏆 BEST BET: MS HUBBLE
• ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: SHOW US YA TEXTS
• 💰 ROUGHIE: ROCK’N ON UPTOWN (Currently $11)
• 🚫 AVOID/LAY: DON’T BACK DOWN (Over-hyped maiden)
• 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: MS HUBBLE, SHOW US YA TEXTS, ROCK’N ON UPTOWN, ENVISIONED

RACE 5: CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1405m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Average The Map:

• Leaders: GRAND VOILE, STEEL RAIN
• On Pace: HIGH VOLTAGE, DANCINGONTHEROSSO
• Midfield: HEADSTREAM, KING SOLEIL
• Backmarkers: THE MYSTERY GUY, RUDIMENTARY Bias Analysis: DANCINGONTHEROSSO has the rail draw (1) and a track/distance win to her name. Highly suited by the predicted rail bias.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

HIGH VOLTAGE (Barrier 5)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Paul Snowden — Average | Jockey: Grady Spokes — Poor
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: N/A | Time Rating: 94 | 10-Factor Score: 9/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Fastest time ratings in the field; class runner.
  • ❌ Cons: First up; poor jockey rating.
  • Verdict: If she’s fit, she simply wins.

DANCINGONTHEROSSO (Barrier 1)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Kris Lees — Good | Jockey: Kody Nestor — Poor
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 95 | Current Rating: 41 | Time Rating: N/A | 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Course and distance winner; gate 1.
  • ❌ Cons: Recent form is slightly down.
  • Verdict: Perfect map horse for the track bias.

STEEL RAIN (Barrier 4)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Donna Grisedale — Good | Jockey: Matthew Bennett — Poor
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 79 | Current Rating: 46 | Time Rating: 85 | 10-Factor Score: 7.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Good current rating; handles the distance.
  • ❌ Cons: Poor jockey SR.
  • Verdict: A very safe place bet.

THE MYSTERY GUY (Barrier 9)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Jeremy Sylvester — Good | Jockey: Luke Rolls — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 77 | Current Rating: 45 | Time Rating: 84 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Coming off a massive 2nd.
  • ❌ Cons: Wide draw; long time between wins.
  • Verdict: Threatening if he gets a cart into the race.

RUDIMENTARY (Barrier 11)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Vanessa McLennan — Shit House | Jockey: Serg Lisnyy — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 69 | Current Rating: 43 | Time Rating: 89 | 10-Factor Score: 6/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Fast time rating.
  • ❌ Cons: Awful career strike rate.
  • Verdict: One for the wider exotics.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

• 🏆 BEST BET: HIGH VOLTAGE
• ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: DANCINGONTHEROSSO
• 💰 ROUGHIE: THE MYSTERY GUY (Currently $15)
• 🚫 AVOID/LAY: GRAND VOILE (Short priced risk with poor jockey data)
• 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: HIGH VOLTAGE, DANCINGONTHEROSSO, STEEL RAIN, THE MYSTERY GUY

RACE 6: LAKES & OCEAN HOTEL BENCHMARK 50 HANDICAP (1305m)

1. 🗺️ DETAILED SPEED MAP

Tempo Prediction: Fast The Map:

• Leaders: WILDERNESS STAR, LIKA REMI
• On Pace: BONDI PROPHET, PRETTY SHAMROCK
• Midfield: AOIFE, SNITZENEGGER
• Backmarkers: SEETHING CHUCK, SKITTIZ Bias Analysis: BONDI PROPHET (2) is drawn to receive the run of the meeting. He will sit one-off the fence and have last crack.

2. 🏇 TOP 5 RUNNERS ANALYSIS

BONDI PROPHET (Barrier 2)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Robert Agnew — Average | Jockey: Olivia Dalton — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 100 | Current Rating: 41 | Time Rating: 88 | 10-Factor Score: 9.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Top rater; perfect map; loves the track.
  • ❌ Cons: Big weight.
  • Verdict: The day’s best bet.

LIKA REMI (Barrier 6)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Steve Hodge — Shit House | Jockey: Serg Lisnyy — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 98 | Current Rating: 41 | Time Rating: 87 | 10-Factor Score: 8.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Undefeated at the course; high race rating.
  • ❌ Cons: Trainer stats are poor.
  • Verdict: The obvious danger to the favorite.

SEETHING CHUCK (Barrier 12)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Karen Owen — Average | Jockey: Madeline Owen — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 78 | Current Rating: 47 | Time Rating: 94 | 10-Factor Score: 8/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Fastest time ratings in the field; track winner.
  • ❌ Cons: Wide draw.
  • Verdict: Huge value if they over-cook the tempo.

SNITZENEGGER (Barrier 8)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Jeremy Sylvester — Good | Jockey: Luke Rolls — Average
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 74 | Current Rating: 44 | Time Rating: 79 | 10-Factor Score: 7/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Good trainer/jockey combo.
  • ❌ Cons: Form is plateauing.
  • Verdict: Place hope.

AOIFE (Barrier 1)

• 👥 Human Ratings: Trainer: Julia Presits — Shit House | Jockey: Ellen Hennessy — Shit House
• 📊 Data Profile: Race Rating: 70 | Current Rating: 48 | Time Rating: 91 | 10-Factor Score: 6.5/10
• 📝 The Report:
  • ✅ Pros: Barrier 1; decent time ratings.
  • ❌ Cons: Human ratings are poor.
  • Verdict: Rail bias makes her a must for exotics.

3. 💸 BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

• 🏆 BEST BET: BONDI PROPHET
• ⚠️ DANGER/SAVER: LIKA REMI
• 💰 ROUGHIE: SEETHING CHUCK (Currently $14)
• 🚫 AVOID/LAY: WILDERNESS STAR (Under $10 and likely to fold late)
• 🔮 EXOTIC: Box: BONDI PROPHET, LIKA REMI, SEETHING CHUCK, AOIFE

MEETING SUMMARY & STAKING PLAN

📘 THE $100 PLAY BOOK

• Race 1: CORPSMAN – Win – $20
• Race 2: BRAZEN BRANDO – Win – $15
• Race 4: MS HUBBLE – Win – $15
• Race 5: HIGH VOLTAGE – Win – $20
• Race 6: BONDI PROPHET – Win – $30

🧩 THE QUADDIE STRATEGY ($50 Budget)

• Leg 1 (Race 3): ON ME, DIABLO DANCER, ONE FOR HESKO
• Leg 2 (Race 4): MS HUBBLE, SHOW US YA TEXTS, ROCK’N ON UPTOWN
• Leg 3 (Race 5): HIGH VOLTAGE, DANCINGONTHEROSSO
• Leg 4 (Race 6): BONDI PROPHET, LIKA REMI
• Calculation: 3 x 3 x 2 x 2 = 36 Combinations.
• Flexi: $50 / 36 = 138% Return.

FINAL NOTE: Prices and ratings correct at time of analysis. Please bet within your means. Human ratings are statistical derivations from provided data.